Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: Gilberto Câmara Director, National Institute for Space Research Brazil Brazil-MIT Forum 2011, Boston (USA)

Best environmental monitoring 46% of energy is renewable Brazil: a natural knowledge economy Best technology in biofuels World leader in tropical agriculture

Nature, 29 July 2010

Agriculture Energy Ecosystems Climate change Weather and natural disasters Space technology adds value to Brazil´s natural knowledge economy Megacities

The rôle of forests in global climate Aware that deforestation accounts for approximately 20% of annual CO 2 emissions, we remain engaged in seeking the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) (G8 L’Aquila Declaration, 2009)

REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation): the concept Payment to tropical nations for avoided deforestation as compensation for fossil fuel emissions

The hype for REDD

Why so generous? Payments for avoided deforestation?

Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE) Deforestation is responsible for 20% of global GHG emissions (G8) Can we base global policies on this statement?

source: Global Land Project (2010) Land change < 10% of total GHG emissions in 2010 Global GHG emissions

Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions

Reduction from 27,000 km2 to 6,500 km2 in 5 years Governance + markets + technology >> REDD+ Reducing deforestation in Amazonia

Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia CBERS image Science (27 April 2007): “ Brazil´s monitoring system is the envy of the world ”. Deforestation Degradation

Floresta time 15-day deforestation alerts Yearly rates of clear cuts INPE’s Monitoring Systems

15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas Real-time Deforestation Monitoring

~230 scenes Landsat/year Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas Clear-cut deforestation mapping

Transparency builds governance registrations 46 million protests

Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% of operations in 2% of the area

Protected areas and deforestation

Markets have a positive rôle

“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

Stern report: REDD is cheap Payments limited to endangered areas Each agent is compensated by opportunity cost

REDD scenario: avoiding emissions by paying current opportunity costs Economic failure, ecological failure (Costa, 2009)

Non-REDD scenario: avoiding emissions by conversion of productive activities Economic growth, ecological success (Costa, 2009)

Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil EU-15 reduction % of 1990 levels Avoided def Brazil From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts 7,7 Gt CO2eq 4,9 Gt CO2eq

REDD: what is avoided deforestation? Is REDD creating hot air?

Conflicting prospects for REDD

Will REDD create self-defeating outcomes? ‘We have a resource we would like to get money for. Either you pay us for biodiversity services or we will sell the forest to Malaysian logging companies.’ (Guyana government officer)

The gods are never crazy… …but you should not be fooled by them!