The 2014 Economy: Back to the Future (or maybe back to the early 90’s) R. Christopher Jones, Ph.D.

2 What did 2013 offer us (the U.S.)? An economy that is still growing.. Recession technically over June 2009  16 out of 17 quarters with positive real GDP growth since Q  Unemployment at lowest point in 5 years (7%)  Retail sales growth relatively solid  Growth in industrial production and capacity utilization  Interest rates still low, and we have avoided inflation  29.2% growth in S&P 500

3 What else did it bring? Not all the news was great..  We created 1.08 million jobs in 2013 Fewest net jobs created since 2010  Increasing Federal debt and expansive monetary policy continue to spark fears of inflation  International debt crisis still threatens monetary and economic stability  Marginal growth in housing starts

4 What about Florida? Growth has returned, but not “2000’s style” growth  Best job growth in since 2005 (159k)  Unemployment dropped 1.6 percent in 2013, to lowest rate in 5 ½ years (6.2 percent)  Housing starts are increasing (34% growth in 2013)  Home values beginning to move upward  All major regional markets seem to have awakened from the economic coma

5 U.S. Real GDP (Chained 2009 Dollars)

6 U.S. Real GDP Annualized % Growth

7 U.S. Unemployment Rate

8 U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR)

9 Real Retail & Food Svcs. Sales

10 Inflation (CPI-U)

11 Real Per Capita Disposable Personal Income

12 Credit Market Debt Per Capita (infl. adj.)

13 Consumer Sentiment

14 Federal Debt

U.S. Forecast Growth continues, real GDP will grow by 3% % Modest job growth continues, unemployment finish out the year around 5.3% - 5.5% Stock markets grow by 7% - 10% Inflation concerns still can’t be ignored, nor can the international debt crisis Is there a “boom” period ahead in the short run?  Not likely – but probably no collapse, either

16 Florida: The Facts Florida has added 623,100 jobs since July 2010  Represents 11.9 percent of all U.S. jobs created during this period The net job gains (623.1k) represent two-thirds of the job losses experienced during the recession (930,800) Dec – Nov. 2013: Gained 159,400 jobs 6.2% unemployment (Nov. 2013) 52,081 housing starts first 11 mos. of 2013, compared to 38,758 in 2012 and 29,324 in 2011 Home prices have increased by 8.4 percent in the past year

17 Florida Real GDP (millions of chained 2005 dollars)

18 Florida Employment (000s)

19 Florida Unemployment Rate

20 Florida Housing Starts

21 Florida Home Price Index (Q = 100)

22 Florida Home Ownership Rate

23 Leading Index for Florida

24 FL Employment By Region (000s)

25 FL Unemployment Rate by Region

26 FL Housing Starts By Region

27 FL Consumer Distress Index by Region (Financial Distress < 70)

28 What’s in Store for Florida? More job growth, lower unemployment  But the growth will be modest  Florida’s economic picture today looks a lot like the early 1990’s Are we ever going to see a full recovery of the housing sector?  Depends on how you define “full recovery”  If you use 2000’s criteria, no All areas are moving forward again  SE Florida will create the most jobs (most diverse economy)