Employment, unemployment and economic activity Coventry working age population by ethnicity Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics

Interpreting the data The data presented in the following charts and discussed in the related commentary are estimates taken from responses from working age Coventry residents to the national ‘Annual Population Survey’ conducted by the Office for National Statistics. They are taken from five surveys conducted on a rolling annual basis from April 2007 – March 2008 to April March 2012, each of the five survey results were taken from between 1,100 and 1,200 working age respondents living in Coventry. The true proportions amongst all working age Coventry residents (of whom there are about 208,000 in total) lie within a certain margin of error (a ‘confidence interval’) either side of the proportions found in the survey results. Due to this, the extent to which the survey results have changed between and (and even the fact that they have changed at all) may not accurately represent real changes in the proportions who are unemployed, employed and economically active amongst all working age residents of Coventry. Statistical tests* were conducted on the survey data to determine whether we can robustly conclude that the difference between the results from the and surveys are a true reflection of the real story amongst all working age residents or whether they could be due to the sample of people who were surveyed at that time. The results of the tests are discussed briefly in the commentary. * The ‘two proportion Z test’.

Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics. Definitions: In employment – in paid work; full time or part time, employed or self employed. Unemployed – the definition set out by the International Labour Organisation. Not in employment and actively seeking employment (has sought work in the last four weeks). The unemployment rate is the ratio of unemployed to employed – the % of economically active working age residents who are unemployed. Essentially, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all those who want to work (including those already in employment). Economically active – either in employment or unemployed. Economically inactive – not economically active. Not in employment and not actively seeking employment. Take me to chart overview

Employment, unemployment and economic activity by ethnicity – FY on FY data Employment, unemployment and economic activity by ethnicity - Percentage point difference over time (FY – FY) Take me to definitions

What is this telling me? Take me home In the unemployment rate (a 12 month average) amongst all residents aged 16+ was 9.3% compared to the overall rate for England of 8.1%. That is, 9.3% of economically active residents aged 16 and over were out of work and actively seeking work. Between and the unemployment rate amongst all residents aged 16 – 64 increased from 7.0% to 9.3%. Between and the unemployment rate amongst people of White ethnicity (including ‘White British’, ‘White Irish’ and ‘White Other’) increased by an estimated 3.4 percentage points from 5.4% in to 8.9% in In contrast, the survey results for the unemployment rate amongst all people who were not of White ethnicity (Mixed ethnicity, Asian or Asian British ethnicity, Black or Black British ethnicity of ‘Other’ ethnicity) decreased by an estimated 3.8 percentage points from 14.6% in to 10.9% in The number of ‘non-White’ residents sampled in this survey was quite low and this is not a statistically significant fall. The fall in the survey results is not large enough and the sample was too small to conclude that unemployment has fallen in general amongst ‘non-White’ residents. Jobseekers’ Allowance claimant count data, another indicator of unemployment, shows a different picture - an increase amongst ‘non-White’ people. These results mask potential differences between the different ethnic minority groups in Coventry. The number of residents from individual ethnic minority groups sampled in this survey was not sufficient to enable robust estimates to be made about all residents from each group in Coventry. Take me back to the data

What is this telling me? Take me home In the survey results showed that the unemployment rate amongst ‘non- White’ residents as a whole was notably higher than the unemployment rate amongst White residents. Again, this masks the differences between the various ethnic minority groups; JSA data indicates that some ‘non-White’ ethnic groups may experience lower unemployment rates than ‘White’ residents. The evidence from the survey results given in the charts suggests that the gap in unemployment between White and ‘non-White’ residents may have narrowed in the four years since the recession hit the city. The survey estimates (and JSA data) put the unemployment rate amongst ‘non-White’ people higher than the rate amongst White people. However, in there was a statistically significant difference between the ‘non-White’ rate and the White rate but in the difference between the survey estimates were not large enough to conclude that there was a significance difference. Take me back to the data

What is this telling me? Take me home In the employment rate (a 12 month average) amongst all working age ( ) residents of Coventry was 64% compared to the overall rate for England of 70%. That is, 64% of all working age residents were in employment, whether that be full time or part time, as an employee or self employed. Between 2008 and 2012 the employment rate amongst all residents aged 16 – 64 fell from 70% to 64%. The survey results estimate that White residents experienced a greater fall in employment compared to ‘non-White’ residents. The results estimate that the employment rate amongst White residents fell by about 6 percentage points from 74% in to 68% in The 6 point fall in the employment rate amongst White residents surveyed is sufficiently large to conclude that it is statistically significant – we can infer from these results that employment has fallen in general amongst all residents of White ethnicity. For ‘non-White’ residents the results estimate that the employment rate fell by just over 2 percentage points from 55% to 53% - this fall is not statistically significant. The estimate of the employment rate amongst ‘non-White’ residents is based on surveying quite a small sample so the estimate of the change is subject to a margin or error when making inferences about all ‘non-White’ residents. The estimate of a smaller fall amongst ‘non-White’ residents is an indication of what has happened amongst all ‘non-White’ Coventry residents but we cannot be sure that this is the case. Take me back to the data

What is this telling me? Take me home There are estimates of how employment changes have taken affect for each individual ethnic group within the ‘non-White’ group, although very few residents from each of these groups were sampled so such estimates are less reliable than those for the overall ‘non-White’ group. While the survey results suggest that the gap between the unemployment rates of White residents and ‘non-White’ residents may have closed, the evidence for this is less strong in terms of employment. In 2007 – 8 the estimated employment rate amongst White residents, 74%, was notably higher than the rate amongst ‘non-White’ residents, 55%. The estimates for 2011 – 12 suggest that there is still an employment rate gap; the employment rate amongst White residents was 68% compared to 53% amongst ‘non-White’ residents. This gap is statistically significant. The estimates suggest that people of White ethnicity had the highest employment rate out of all ethnic groups in the city in 2007– 8; changes in the last four years may mean that this is no longer the case, it is not clear. The survey data gives an indication that employment fell amongst White residents in the periods to and 2009 – 10 to 2011 – 12. Take me back to the data

What is this telling me? Take me home In the economic activity rate (a 12 month average) amongst all working age (16 – 64) residents of Coventry was 70% compared to the overall rate for England of 77%. That is, 70% of all working age residents were economically active, either in employment or actively looking for work. Between and the economic activity rate amongst all residents aged 16 – 64 fell from 76% to 70%. The survey results indicate that White residents and ‘non-White’ residents experienced a fall in economic activity, both to a similar extent. The results estimate that the activity rate amongst White residents fell by about 4 percentage points from 79% in to 75% in For ‘non-White’ residents the results estimate that the employment rate fell by about 5 percentage points from 64% to 59%. The size of these changes are not quite large enough for them to be statistically significant – we cannot conclude for sure that economic activity has reduced amongst all residents of White or ‘non White’ ethnicity. However, the fall in economic activity amongst all residents of any ethnicity is a statistically significant fall – this suggests that activity may have fallen amongst residents of both White and ‘non-White’ ethnicity. Take me back to the data

What is this telling me? Take me home In 2007 – 8 the estimated economic activity rate amongst White residents, 79%, was notably higher than the rate amongst ‘non-White’ residents, 64%. The estimates for 2011 – 12 suggest that there is still a gap; the activity rate amongst White residents was 75% compared to 59% amongst ‘non-White’ residents – this is a statistically significant difference, evidence that economic activity is generally lower amongst ‘non White people across Coventry overall. The survey results indicate that while economic activity fell gradually between 2007 – 8 and 2011 – 12 amongst White residents, the reduction in economic activity amongst ‘non-White’ residents has been felt in the last two years particularly. Take me back to the data