Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop Integration of V&A Analysis

Outline Integration of results General points Cross sector and multisector integration Setting priorities Vulnerability Adaptation

Why is Integration Important? Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect another Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly Others just indirectly Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect of climate change in another sector In addition, integration is necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations

Main Types of Integration of Results Cross-sector integration Link related sectors Multisector Economy or system wide Integrated assessment models Economic models

Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate change In one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture

Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad. WEAP Evaluation Planning CROPWAT Regional irrigation CERES Crop water demand WATBAL Streamflow PET SCENARIOS GCM SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology

Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline (1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)

Multisector Integration

IMAGE Model

Regional/National Economic Models Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with nonmarket impacts Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models Require much data Can be expensive Can be complex Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

An Example of a Regional Model

A More “Simple” Approach Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple end points Impacts may be measured with different metrics Need to account for many sectors Does not capture sectoral interactions

Estimates of Damages for India SectorDamages ($ billions) Agriculture-53.2 Forestry+0.1 Energy-21.9 Water-$1.2 Coastal Resources-0.1

Can Also Measure Number of People Affected “Millions at Risk” study did this Global burden of disease

Millions at Risk Study

At a Minimum Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts If crops can be examined, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

Integration through Setting Priorities Vulnerability Adaptation

Prioritization of Vulnerabilities It can be quite useful for Focusing adaptation measures Monitoring Adaptation

Process is as Important as Outcome This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise Need to include stakeholders and policy makers The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

NAPA Process

Adaptation Policy Framework Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards C1C2C3C4C5C6 System/ Region/ Hazard Social impacts Economic impacts Environmental impacts Political impacts Ranking A B C

OECD Method

Ranking Adaptations Screening Multicriteria assessment Benefit-cost analysis

Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

Multicriteria Assessment OptionsEffectivenessFeasibilityCostScore A3227 B24410 C5139

Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan

Ranking Based on Scenario

Benefit-Cost Analysis Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs Monetary values often used Difficulty: what to do about nonmarket benefits or uncertainties Difficulty: requires much data and analysis

BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

What to Use

Conclusions Integration is important to at least identify related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be surprises Integration can also be useful for examining total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities