Geoshare Workshop Purdue, 11 Sep 2014 What Geoshare may do for us Hermann Lotze-Campen.

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Presentation transcript:

Geoshare Workshop Purdue, 11 Sep 2014 What Geoshare may do for us Hermann Lotze-Campen

11 Sep Energy system MAGICC (climate) LPJmL (vegetation) Climate change Constraints (yields, water, land) CO 2 GHG emissions Aerosols MAgPIE (land use) Bioenergy costs LUC emissions REMIND (energy) Land use pattern Albedo Extreme events Sea-level risey Bioenergy demand CO 2 price Temp. change Scenarios constraints Integrated Assessment Modelling at PIK

Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep Regional Demand Population Income / GDP International Trade Socio-Economic Data - cost and investment data Calories and Livestock Share Self- Sufficiencies p tb 1- p tb Comparative Advantage Regional Supply Biophysical inputs (LPJmL) -crop yields -land / water constraints -vegetation and soil carbon Cropping Patterns Deforestation Rate MAgPIE Land Pools based on FAO, IUCN and WRI on 0.5° grid regional Water Scarcity Transport Costs (JRC) on 0.5° grid MAgPIE overview

Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep MIP on climate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2050 (AgMIP Global Economics Team) Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ Nelson et al., PNAS, 2014 Special issue

Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - data Acknowledging spatial and temporal variability (soil, water, productivity, climate impacts, emission factors, …) Bringing more geography into economics (land quality, transportation, market access) [e.g. precision farming] Linking monetary and biophysical dimensions Linking modelling outputs to poverty and food/nutrition security (where are the (poor) people?) Provision of (alternative) standardized input data sets Thinking beyond cropland: reducing uncertainties on all major landuse types (crop, pasture, forest, urban, …) and livestock Model validation, exploring of uncertainties, model improvement Harmonization of inputs for model intercomparisons Accessability, transparency, replicability of modelling results (e.g. AgMIP GlobEcon results, IAM SSP results) (see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)

Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - workflows Integration of global and regional modelling approaches (e.g. on crop modelling, hydrology, CC adaptation) [and data sets] Linking local management options to large-scale assessments Standardizing the climate-biophysical-economics modelling chain for external users Linking the agriculture and energy sectors BUT: Who are the actual workflow users? Possible way forward: Provide "reduced" versions of complex models for selected workflows for external users? Can Geoshare/HUB be used for managing the AgMIP econ process? Options for distributed funding: e.g. German BMBF-funded project with link to Geoshare (see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)

Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep

Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep AgMIP Global Economics modelling standards Definition of regions Definition of sectors/crop groups: wht, cgn, ric, osd, sug, CR5 GDP, Population Agricultural productivity growth Conversion from grid to regions/countries Definition of output variables CSV files for inputs/outputs XLS pivot tables R code for post-processing Dropbox for data exchange Group management: provide inputs and collect outputs Needed: Software for iterative analysis/assessment of results