Russian supply security - the versatile challenge Where is the energetic future of Central and Eastern Europe? EAES conference, 17 December 2011, Beladice András Deák

„We emphasize in the declaration we have accepted today that energy security is a priority for all of us. We think it is of pivotal importance that we let the energy supply of Central-East Europe stand on several feet.” Gordon Bajnai, Hungarian Prime Minister on the occassion of the Extended Energy Security Summit of the V4 Countries, February 25th, 2010 Is there a critical mass of common interests for a common policy?

Different TPES patterns, wide variations of energy profiles in the region. Coal- or gas- based supply patterns.

Overall EU10 import dependency is significantly lower than in EU27. EU10 natural gas import dependency is basicly at the same level, as in EU 27. Import dependency ratios differ widely thorough the region.

Different settings of corporate policy actors - different benchmarking and supply security considerations:State owned NECs / privatly owned NECs / IECs

Russia is a „gas price maker” in the region – supply security shall address primarily the price risk. Russian supplies can be the cheapest if a competitive constraint is given (oil market).

Supply security vis-a-vis Russia CEE gas markets in mid-term will converge to European trends: 1. Emerging hybrid pricing in Western Europe likely to overspill to Central Europe. 2. Increasing interconnectivity both among CEE countries and with Western Europe increases competition. 3. Some national diversification efforts may decrease dependence. 4. Gazprom supply buffer may put pressure on existing export strategy patterns.

Supply security vis-a-vis EC energy policies Climate policies (renewables) and demand management (efficiency measures) are not perceptied as the primary responses to supply security challenges. 1.No renewables beyond biomass. Lack of potential. 2.Budgetary and social constraints at pricing. 3.Domestic stakeholders have not emerged in green economy.