Maritime Law Association of the United States Fall Meeting October 22, 2015 Bermuda “Insurance Trends: U. S. Market Perspective” Rich DeSimone – XL Catlin © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO1

Container Revolution “Ideal X” April 1956 © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO2

Marine Insurance Trends Mega Exposures © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO3

Mega Exposures : Evolution of the Container Ship © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO4

Mega Exposures – Super Yachts & ATB’s © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO5

Mega Exposure-Container Terminal Hong Kong © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO6

Mega Loss- Port of Tianjin © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO 7

Off Shore Mega Exposures © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO8

Mega Losses & The Environment © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO9

Mega Exposure – Global Warming & Weather © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO10

Mega Exposure – Arctic Shipping © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO11

Marine Insurance Trends Mega Exposures Market Capacity © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO12

Market Capacity Mergers & Acquisitions Increased Market Capacity - Falling Rates & Broader Terms Market Results are Acceptable Low Barrier to Entry Favorable Weather No Major Earthquakes Better and Newer Equipment Challenged to Make Good Financial Decisions © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO13

Market Capacity Warren Buffett’s Four Underwriting Disciplines: “1) An understanding of all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) A conservative evaluation of the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) The setting of a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) The willingness to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained, “ © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO14

Market Capacity Who Benefits? Underwriters –No Brokers –No, not really Insured’s- Maybe © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO15

Marine Insurance Trends Mega Exposures Market Capacity Emerging Risks © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO16

Emerging Risks – What Are We Missing? Environmental Asbestos Cigarettes Y2K Cyber Pandemic Emergency Facility (PEF) developed with the WHO V20 Group of Vulnerable Countries Pool to specifically address acute and chronic hydro-meteorological hazards, as affected by climate change. © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO17

Marine Insurance Trends Mega Exposures Market Capacity Emerging Risks Big Data & Analytics © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO18

Data & Analytics Big Data and Analytics Predictive Modeling Progressive Model RMS/Nat Cat Modeling AAL's Actuarial "Deep Dives" Loss Reserve Reviews Pricing Actuaries But let's not forget that a big part of our business involves risk selection and the "art" part of the business. © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO19

, “The wind and waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators” Edward Gibbons © 2015, XL Catlin companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO20