Revisiting estimation of TC winds from IR Imagery.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Impact of cumulus parameterization on motion, structure, intensity: preliminary results Robert Fovell and Yizhe Peggy Bu University of California, Los.
Advertisements

Introduction to Hurricane Forecasting John P. Cangialosi Hurricane Specialist National Hurricane Center HSS Webinar 13 March 2012 John P. Cangialosi Hurricane.
Future Plans  Refine Machine Learning:  Investigate optimal pressure level to use as input  Investigate use of neural network  Add additional input.
Future Plans  Refine Machine Learning:  Investigate optimal pressure level to use as input  Investigate use of neural network  Add additional input.
HEDAS ANALYSIS STATISTICS ( ) by Altug Aksoy (NOAA/AOML/HRD) HEDAS retrospective/real-time analyses have been performed for the years
Advanced Research WRF High Resolution Simulations of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005) Kristen L. Corbosiero, Wei Wang, Yongsheng Chen, Jimy Dudhia.
5/22/201563rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL Experiments of Hurricane Initialization with Airborne Doppler.
Microwave Imagery and Tropical Cyclones Satellite remote sensing important resource for monitoring TCs, especially in data sparse regions Passive microwave.
Examination of the Dominant Spatial Patterns of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones from the 2004 Atlantic and Northwest Pacific Seasons.
A Case Study of Hurricane Formation in Strong Shear: Claudette (2003) Kay Shelton University at Albany, SUNY.
Background Tropopause theta composites Summary Development of TPVs is greatest in the Baffin Island vicinity in Canada, with development possibly having.
1 Progress Towards Developing a Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Framework for Research and Operational Hurricane Models Isaac Ginis B. Thomas, R. Yablonsky,
Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Structure Presented by John Knaff with input and efforts from A. Schumacher, R. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, C. Slocum.
The Relative Contribution of Atmospheric and Oceanic Uncertainty in TC Intensity Forecasts Ryan D. Torn University at Albany, SUNY World Weather Open Science.
1 Short term plan to assist 2011 HWRF implementation HFIP Stream 1 Regional Hurricane Model Diagnostics Planning Meeting, 11/08/2010.
Convective-scale diagnostics Rob Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division.
1 04/03/02 01:30 utc IR. 2 04/03/02 02:00 utc IR.
Kenji KISHIMOTO Forecast Division Japan Meteorological Agency.
What coronal parameters determine solar wind speed? M. Kojima, M. Tokumaru, K. Fujiki, H. Itoh and T. Murakami Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory,
Understanding and (possibly) rectifying historical and regional wind-pressure relationship differences By John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS Fort Collins, CO
Is Integrated Kinetic Energy a Comprehensive Index to Describe Tropical Cyclone Destructiveness? Emily Madison.
OBJECTIVE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS Working Group: J. Knaff (NESDIS, Lead), Michael Bell (U. Hawaii – USA), Johnny C. L. Chan (City Univ. of Hong Kong), Kelvin.
Tropical Cyclone Applications of GOES-R Mark DeMaria and Ray Zehr NESDIS/ORA, Fort Collins, CO John Knaff CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO Applications of Advanced.
Development of a Real-Time Automated Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis: Development of a Real-Time Automated Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis:
Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Status Report Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,
On the Multi-Intensity Changes of Hurricane Earl (2010) Daniel Nelson, Jung Hoon Shin, and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University.
On the Improvement to H*Wind Hurricane Wind Analyses Due to the Inclusion of Future Ocean Surface Wind Measurements from Aircraft and Satellite Timothy.
Modelling the impact of polar mesoscale cyclones on ocean circulation Are we under-forcing our ocean models? Alan Condron 1, Grant Bigg 2 and Ian Renfrew.
By: Michael Kevin Hernandez Key JTWC ET onset JTWC Post ET  Fig. 1: JTWC best track data on TC Sinlaku (2008). ECMWF analysis ET completion ECMWF analysis.
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Size and Intensity to the Radial Distribution of Surface Entropy Flux Wang, Y., and Xu, 2010: Sensitivity of.
An Improved Wind Probability Program: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO Stan Kidder,
IMPACTS OF TURBULENCE ON HURRICANES (ONR-BAA ) PI: Yongsheng Chen, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Co-PIs: George H. Bryan and Richard.
A Comparison of Two Microwave Retrieval Schemes in the Vicinity of Tropical Storms Jack Dostalek Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere,
NHC Activities, Plans, and Needs HFIP Diagnostics Workshop August 10, 2012 NHC Team: David Zelinsky, James Franklin, Wallace Hogsett, Ed Rappaport, Richard.
Modeling the upper ocean response to Hurricane Igor Zhimin Ma 1, Guoqi Han 2, Brad deYoung 1 1 Memorial University 2 Fisheries and Oceans Canada.
Real-Time Dissemination of Hurricane Wind Fields Determined from Airborne Doppler Radar John Gamache NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division Collaborators:
Sensitivity of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity to Horizontal Resolution Speaker: Wang, Jian-Cyuan Advisor: Prof. Yang, Ming-Jen Megan.
John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), J. Cione (NOAA/HRD), M. DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Dunion (U. of Miami/HRD), J. Solbrig (NRL), J. Hawkins(NRL),
DATA ASSIMILATION FOR HURRICANE PREDICTION Experimental system and results of semi-operational implementation during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Global-Hawk-based data from tropical cyclones Jason Sippel, Gerry Heymsfield, Lin Tian, and Scott Braun- NASAs GSFC.
CIMMSE TC Wind Group Conference Call Wednesday, April 10 th, AM.
Atlantic Simplified Track Model Verification 4-year Sample ( ) OFCL shown for comparison Forecast Skill Mean Absolute Error.
An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research Fort Collins, Colorado.
1 Aircraft observations of the multiscale structure and evolution of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones Robert Rogers 1, Paul Reasor 1, Jun Zhang 2,
Can Dvorak Intensity Estimates be Calibrated? John A. Knaff NOAA/NESDIS Fort Collins, CO.
Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Estimates of Hurricane Intensity Eric Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML)
John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), J. Cione (NOAA/HRD), M. DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Dunion (U. of Miami/HRD), J. Solbrig (NRL), J. Hawkins(NRL),
Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Year 2 Project Update Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John A. Knaff,
Munehiko Yamaguchi Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency 9:00 – 12: (Thr) Topic.
TC Projects Joint Hurricane Testbed, Surface winds GOES-R, TC structure – TC Size TPW & TC size (Jack Dostalek) IR climatology – RMW/wind profile Proving.
Dynamics and predictability of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) Erin Munsell Summer 2015 Group Meeting August 17 th, 2015.
Multi-Scale Analysis of the Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure of TS Humberto Using Dropsonde and Satellite Data Jeffrey B. Halverson, UMBC Alex Martin,
VORTRAC – A Utility to Deduce Central Pressure and Radius of Maximum Wind of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using WSR-88D Data Wen-Chau Lee NCAR/EOL Paul.
New Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Tools for the Western North Pacific Mark DeMaria and John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU.
On polarimetric characteristics of mesoscale cellular convection in the marine atmospheric boundary layer Haiyan Li, William Perrie, Lanli Guo , Biao Zhang.
1 Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.
Satellite + Aircraft Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis Joint Hurricane Testbed.
Quick Review - Fronts. Quick Review - Clouds Using Satellite and Radar Imagery to Find Weather Features.
INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE IN HURRICANE ISABEL (2003) Shuyi S. Chen and Peter J. Kozich RSMAS/University of Miami J. Gamache, P. Dodge,
Shuyi S. Chen, Robert A. Houze Bradley Smull, David Nolan, Wen-Chau Lee Frank Marks, and Robert Rogers Observational and Modeling Study of Hurricane Rainbands.
Preparing for GOES-R and JPSS: New Tropical Cyclone Tools Based on 30 Years of Continuous GOES IR Imagery John A. Knaff1, Robert T. DeMaria2, Scott P.
Accounting for Variations in TC Size
Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation on hurricane forecast
TC Winds Conference Call
An Analysis of Large Track Error North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.
Methodology for 3D Wind Retrieval from HIWRAP Conical Scan Data:
Impacts of Air-Sea Interaction on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity
Validation of CIRA Tropical Cyclone Algorithms
Simon Liu and Fuqing Zhang
The Flux Model of Orographic Rain
Presentation transcript:

Revisiting estimation of TC winds from IR Imagery

Making sense of the data Data and documentation Flight-level data ( ) Estimates of tangential wind at the 500km radius (GFS) IR images (3-hourly here) Best track (intensity, motion) Methods to estimate surface inflow angles Methods to reduce winds from flight-level to the surface Analyses Analyze aircraft data on a polar grid, motion relative – Apply surface reduction – Decompose into wavenumber 0, 1, and 2 Analyze IR images on a polar grid, motion relative – Decompose into 2-D principle components

Method Single-field principle component analysis (SFPCA; Bretherton et al. 1992) applied to the amplitude and phase of the wind field – This relates intensity, latitude, translation speed, and the IR principle components to the surface wind speeds Extrapolate the Amplitudes of wavenumbers through the 166km to 500km region of the vortex Apply inflow angles that are a function of translation speed, intensity, radius, and the radius of maximum wind (Zhang and Uhlhorn 2012)

Example Hurricane Ike 10 Sep UTC

3-hourly wind estimates Ike 2008