Comments on possible revisions to Criterion 6 Indicators Maintenance and enhancement of long-term socio- economic benefits to meet needs of societies Part 1 – Mission and a Holistic Framework Ken Skog Peter Ince USDA Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Topics  Summary of comments on Criterion 6  Assumptions about C&I  Possible missions for C&I  How indicators relate to one another – – Latest science: the “systems” view – A working “holistic framework”  Ideas for additions/ changes

Summary of comments  Criterion 6 comments reflected a range of views about the mission of C&I in general  What is the mission of C&I?  Without a clear vision of the C&I mission, it will be difficult to recommend changes

Assumptions  We need more clarity on the mission of C&I before we can advise changes to C&I –Some alternative missions shown next  Some C&I missions may require better definition of a “C&I system” (others may not)  The Roundtable Integrated Systems Group (IGS) has not completed a systems definition  Our view is that we need at least a working holistic framework, if not a more complex model of the forest system

1. Accelerate National Learning  With a learning focus, C&I contribute to popular scientific understanding, and enhance the awareness and insight provided to leadership and to the public. This is a communication mission— creating awareness and understanding prior to thinking.  It requires no agreement on goals, nor any agreement on the basic elements of the strategy to attain goals. Possible mission for C&I (#1) Source: Martha F. Riche, 2003, Developing Key National Performance Indicators,” GAO and National Academies Forum, Feb 2003

2. Assess National Position and Progress  Measure the position of our country and monitor progress for our citizens. This is a broad, constituent-focused mission.  C&I become largely descriptive indicator sets* that provide a basis for comparing progress in one country with other countries, and our current with our past status.  This requires a generally accepted or common vision and holistic framework that helps uncover especially challenging problems and beneficial opportunities. *For example – GDP, National Income and Product Accounts, National productivity measures, etc. Possible mission for C&I (#2)

3. Provide a Context for Policy or Program Evaluation  C&I would be an essential body of knowledge to use in assessing performance of particular policies, programs, or institutions.  For example, a well-articulated and highly developed set of indicators could provide a context for improved implementation of governmental performance initiatives (e.g. the Government Performance and Results Act, which requires Federal agencies to measure their performance in meeting agreed-upon goals).  This requires a well-grounded conceptual basis that integrates a wide variety of activities into an accountability framework. C&I would become a scorecard for government performance. Possible mission for C&I (#3)

4. Systematically Guide Strategic Decisions  This mission has a policy integration focus, in that it combines policy indicators from a variety of sectors in a systems model that can guide policy choices by higher level decision makers.  This is a systems model that ensures integration by surfacing the interrelationships between different indicators.  This approach aims to answer relational questions (Why and How, not What or Whether), and responds to the growing perception amongst both experts and the public that interrelationships between economic, social, and environmental aspects of life are important and policies will have unanticipated effects if these interrelationships are not understood. Possible missions for C&I (#4)

Suggestions concerning missions  It is feasible to focus on fulfilling missions 1. and Accelerate National Learning - a communication focus— fostering public awareness, understanding, and thinking 2. Assess Position and Progress - provide a basis for comparing progress (tracking over time is key)  It is less feasible to undertake missions 3 and 4 3. Provide a Context for Evaluation – C&I were not intended to be the basis for judging performance of specific programs 4. Guide Strategic Decisions via a systems model that ensures integration – At present, high level decision makers do not typically use systems models to identify/understand interrelationships among different indicators for policy development  Mission 2 assumes people bring a broad “holistic framework” that helps them create indicators –What can we draw from the draft IGS Conceptual framework?

Initial Environmental Conditions Initial Natural Resource Capital Initial Social Capacity And Economic Capital Initial Human Conditions New Human Conditions New Social Capacity And Economic Capital New Natural Resource Capital New Environmental Conditions Interaction with Tangible Env. Events Interaction with Intangible Env. Attributes Land cover, land form and water flow alterations; Waste discharges; Biota transport Processes Producing Tangible Environmental Outputs Processes Producing Intangible Environmental Attributes Processes Producing Tangible Environmental Events Underlying Environmental Processes: Atmospheric Hydrologic Biologic/ Ecologic Geologic Investment, Use of Goods And Services Air, Water. Climate, Plants, Animals Soil, Microbes, Rocks Air, Water. Climate Plants, Animals Soil, Microbes, Rocks Production of Economic Goods and Services Extraction Flow of Tangible Environmental Outputs Flow of Intangible Environ. Attributes Flow of Tangible Environmental Events Environmental SubsystemHuman Subsystem Tier 2 – ISG Conceptual Framework Biomass, Water, Minerals Biomass, Water, Minerals Economic Assets & Liabilities Social Opportunities & Constraints Values & Norms Income, Health, Security Economic Assets & Liabilities Social Opportunities & Constraints Values & Norms Income, Health, Security Demographic, Cultural, Governance’ Legal, Market, Interaction, Family, Education Underlying Social And Economic Processes:

Initial Environmental Conditions Initial Natural Resource Capital Initial Social Capacity And Economic Capital Initial Human Conditions New Human Conditions New Social Capacity And Economic Capital New Natural Resource Capital New Environmental Conditions Interaction with Tangible Env. Events Interaction with Intangible Env. Attributes Land cover, land form and water flow alterations; Waste discharges; Biota transport Processes Producing Tangible Environmental Outputs Processes Producing Intangible Environmental Attributes Processes Producing Tangible Environmental Events Underlying Environmental Processes: Atmospheric Hydrologic Biologic/ Ecologic Geologic Investment, Use of Goods And Services Air, Water. Climate, Plants, Animals Soil, Microbes, Rocks Air, Water. Climate Plants, Animals Soil, Microbes, Rocks Production of Economic Goods and Services Extraction Flow of Tangible Environmental Outputs Flow of Intangible Environ. Attributes Flow of Tangible Environmental Events Environmental SubsystemHuman Subsystem Tier 2 – ISG Conceptual Framework Biomass, Water, Minerals Biomass, Water, Minerals Economic Assets & Liabilities Social Opportunities & Constraints Values & Norms Income, Health, Security Economic Assets & Liabilities Social Opportunities & Constraints Values & Norms Income, Health, Security Demographic, Cultural, Governance’ Legal, Market, Interaction, Family, Education Underlying Social And Economic Processes: Effect on Land use/ Land cover Benefits/ values Investments Capital/ capacity Suggested focus areas

A simplified “holistic framework” showing the role of existing indicators

INVESTMENT (flows) /Investment performance Forest mgt and industries (38) Research, development and education (39) Extension of new technology (40) Return on investment (41) CAPACITY (stocks) Natural capital Biodiversity (C1) Productivity (C2) Ecosystem health (C3) Soil and water (C4) Carbon cycles (C5) Protected areas (42) Subsistence use (47) Built capital Technology (40) Human capital R, D &E (39) Social capital Legal, institution, economic framework (C7) BENEFITS/ VALUES (Flows and stocks) Wood and Nonwood products (29-34) Recreation (35-37) Cultural and spiritual values (42-43) Employment and community (44-47) Well being A General Holistic Framework – Relationship of Criterion 6 Indicators to other Criteria Measure at t 0 t 1 Measure at National, regional scales

Workshop Objectives:  Provide specific recommendations for improving national level Indicators.  To inform the U.S. position on the refinement of the Montreal Process Criteria Indicators. –i.e. suggest changes for all countries to adopt

Suggested missing information or indicators  Benefits/ values –Distribution of benefits (equity) –Water and other ecological services  Holistic Feedback effect of benefits/ values on land use and capacities –Effect of benefits/values on land use and land value