Baseline emission projections and scope for further reductions in Europe up to 2020 Results from the CAFE analysis M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Schöpp

Approach for baseline emission projections Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) –EU-wide scenarios and national projections Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 –Taking account of international and national legislation

RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 SO 2 VOC NO x NH 3 National inventoryRAINS estimate

PM10 RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 PM2.5 National inventoryRAINS estimate

Economic drivers for emission projections

Projections of economic activities used for the CAFE baseline scenarios Energy Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price €/t CO 2 ) –Including national comments received after April DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures) National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures? Agriculture DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform National projections (10 countries)

Economic drivers assumed for the PRIMES energy projections

Emission projections

Land-based emissions CAFE “With climate measures” baseline, EU-25

Range of SO 2 emission projections [kt] EU New Member States ---- Sea regions

Range of NO x emission projections [kt] EU New Member States ---- Sea regions

The scope for further emission reductions through technical measures

Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions “With climate measures” projection, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR) General assumptions Full application of measures included in RAINS database (following IPPC BREF notes) No premature scrapping and no retrofitting beyond current legislation Maximum reductions also applied in non-EU countries and sea regions

Scope for further technical emission reductions CAFE “with climate measures” baseline, EU-25

Costs of current legislation and MTFR 2020

Scope for further non-technical emission reductions “Illustrative climate” vs. “with climate measures” scenario, EU-25 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% SO2NOxVOCNH3PM CLE-2020 "with climate measures" CLE 2020 "Illustrative climate" MTFR-2020 "with climate measures" MTFR 2020 "Illustrative climate"

Projected PM emissions in Europe EU-15EU-10Non-EU

Impact assessment All calculations for 2020 All impact assessments for 1997 meteorology

RAINS impact assessment Seven endpoints Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM Premature deaths attributable to ozone Vegetation damage from ozone (AOT40) Excess of critical loads for acidification for forest soils Excess of critical loads for acidification for semi-natural ecosystems Excess of critical loads for acidification for lakes Excess of critical loads for eutrophication More endpoints evaluated in CAFE Cost-Benefit Analysis

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Current legislation MTFR Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases per year] Provisional estimates based on grid average ozone concentrations, 1997 meteorology

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours] Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to forests % of forest area with acid deposition above CL

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas [% of ecosystems area]

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above CL

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above CL

Conclusions Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline in the future with progressing implementation of current legislation (except ammonia). However, air quality problems will remain. There is scope for further emission reductions: –Starting from the “with climate measures” PRIMES projection, relatively little AQ improvements from more aggressive climate policies –Significant scope from further technical measures beyond current legislation Different regions in Europe experience different environmental problems. No consultations with non-EU countries up to now.