SCIENCE AND THE CITY Alan Wilson Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis University College London

systems of cities: – global – national – regional city regions, cities, towns, villages inner cities, suburbs,….. SYSTEMS OF INTEREST

Population Economy Employment Jobs Use of services Products and services Interactions (Transport and Communications) statics/steady state ‘physiology’/dynamics-DNA A CITY SYSTEM

role in the national (or regional) economy? is it competitive with other cities? does it offer adequate jobs for its population? good economic development policies? skill base? is it prosperous and sustainable? transport and telecomms? stable or shifting population? Migration? housing supply? health, education, environment? safety? Care for the elderly? QUESTIONS

Questions for research take any of these questions, or a group of them, and ask how to make them specific. Measures? Beginnings of analysis? disaggregate: break them down into more detailed questions ask about the roles of Government agencies: – central government – local government – quangoes

The P-D-A framework policy-design-analysis e.g. Heathrow third runway – policy: on capacity – design: invent the alternatives: Heathrow, Stansted, Luton, Thames Gateway – analysis: model existing demand and supply; make some predictions; set up a framework for cost- benefit analysis

Interdependence many of the questions are linked for example, housing problems, which are often seen as problems of housing supply, are actually usually income problems, and income problems are often education/skill problerms

THE SCIENCE what is needed has various names: – a decision support system – an analysis system – a planning system but must be underpinned by an effective information system a GIS can be an effective organiser for this – but this implies taking a wider view of GIS: a table-top GIS with a hierarchical system of pull-down menus to access all the information that is needed? a CityIS or a GovIS?

economic development: input-output models – a city’s balance of payments? population: demographic models – migration particularly difficult spatial interaction models structural dynamics: urban DNA microsimulation, ABM analysis; tests of alternatives; all outputs to the CityIS or the GovIS The analytical base

no good CityIS or GovIS anywhere? – so research the structure of one? most Government approaches in silos: – Government Departments – professions in the Civil Service local government? typically: – alternatives not systematically explored – no effective cost-benefit analysis WHERE ARE WE NOW?

examples follow – first, in terms of one or two central departments – then in terms of more potentially joined-up issues WHAT COULD BE DONE?

Regional and urban growth (BERR, HMT) PSA target to equalise GDP per capita across regions what would be the maximum rate of UK growth if London and the SE were allowed to grow unconstrained? regional growth targets depend on the big cities; can the cities achieve their targets without progressing inner city issues? what would a system of targets look like?

Migration (Home Office) very poor data on international migration differential impacts on each of 160 local authorities could the Government do sample surveys ahead of a 2010 Census? is there a mini research project collating evidence from individual local authorities?

Education (DCSF, DIUS) a rich data base now potentially available policy question: how to combine secondary schools into ‘federations’ to embrace ‘failing’ schools analysis to explore the Government’s ‘choice’ agenda? what does the Government’s HE widening access agenda mean for schools, choices of A- levels etc?

Health (DoH) the sector is data rich but disorganised the geography of GP delivery? the polyclinics controversy? the hierarchy of tertiary (university hospitals), secondary (general hospitals) and primary (GP surgeries – in terms of accessibility, emergencies vs elective etc. performance indicators two ways round: the delivery unit and the residential area – e.g. dental services

Housing (CLG) home ownership: the housing market, the planning system etc. the private rental market the social housing market do we understand the balance between these sectors?

Others……. food and environment (DEFRA): food prices, petrol prices, supermarket deserts,… benefits, pensions, care of the elderly (DWP, DoH): staggering costs to the Government; some good reports (Turner, Sutherland); microsimulation? criminal justice system (HO, DoJ, DCSF, DIUS): CJS information after NOMIS? transport DoT), energy (DEE), culture (DCMS)

Joining up income-employment-education-skills: poor income generates poor diet, poor health, poor performance in education, inadequate housing, need for social welfare support, and, at the extreme, drugs-related crime: so??? the planning system: connects transport and land use with economic strategies and service provision. Does it????? social mobility – see ‘income’ above

insert diagrams from URD-I: – system diagram – list of interaction variables – model equations – input-output diagram – zone focus, sector focus…. MORE SCIENCE

CONCLUDING COMMENT who will design, produce and use a good City IS, or a GovIS????