Model Development at NCEP Brad Ferrier 1,2 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC 2 I.M. Systems Group, Inc. (IMSG) (+ Geoff Manikin 1, Geoff DiMego 1, Eric Aligo 1,2 ) NCAR & FAA In-Flight Icing Users Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) February 2015 UCAR Office Washington, DC

Regional Hurricane GFDL WRF-NMM WRF ARW, NMMB, WRF NMM Climate Forecast System (CFS) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Operational Production Suite (2014) GFS, MOM4, NOAH, Sea Ice North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) GEFS, Canadian Global Model Dispersion HYSPLIT Air Quality CMAQ Regional NAM (NAMRR) NMMB, Noah 3D-VAR DA Regional Bays Great Lakes (POM) N Gulf of Mexico ( FVCOM) Columbia R. ( SELFE) Chesapeake (ROMS) Tampa (ROMS) Delaware (ROMS) Space Weather ENLIL 2 North American Land Surface Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model Global Spectral Noah 3D-En-Var DA Global Forecast System (GFS) 3D-VAR DA 3D-VAR DA WRF ARW Rapid Refresh 3D-VAR DA Waves WAVEWATCH III Ocean HYCOM Ecosystem EwE Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 21 GFS Members ESTOFS ADCIRC SURGE SLOSH P-SURGE SLOSH WRF ARW 3D-VAR DA High Resolution RR NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) GFS & GOCART WRF ARW & NMMB High Res Windows (Systems in magenta will be discussed in this presentation)

Road Map and Themes Where we are and where do we want to go – Short-range regional (mesoscale) modeling – Current & future global prediction systems Evolution over the next 5 years – From current “model of the day” thinking – To probabilistic guidance from ensemble systems (Limited discussion on aircraft icing) Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing3

Regional Systems (4/day) 12 km/60L to 84 h (SREF, 16 km/35-40L) Nests (60L) to 60 h, except 1.33 km fire weather to 36 h (relocatable) 1-way nesting 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC NMMB & WRF ARW (40L) to 48 h 00, 12 UTC - CONUS, Hawaii, Guam 06, 18 UTC – AK, PR Initialized from Rapid Refresh (RAP) North American Mesoscale (NAM) High-Resolution Window (HRW) Runs Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing

Rapid Refresh Systems (24/day) 5 RAP HRRR Developed at ESRL/GSD WRF ARW model 13 km/50 L 3 km/50 L 12 km 3 km Being developed at NCEP/EMC NEMS/NMMB model NAMRR RAP = Rapid Refresh HRRR = High-Resolution Rapid Refresh NAMRR = NAM Rapid Refresh (to be implemented in Q1FY16) RAP - hourly to 18 h HRRR –hourly to 15 h LH T tendencies from radar data Similar to NAM at 00, 06, 12, 18Z Hourly runs to 18 h at other times LH T tendencies from radar data Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing + 60 L (all domains)

Benefits of radar data assimilation Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing6 0-hr anx 3-km radar DA 2013 HRRR 0-hr anx No 3-km radar DA 2012 HRRR Obs 23z 30 May 2012 From G. Manikin (NCEP HRRR Briefing)

Benefits of High-Res Models for Aviation Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing7 07 June PM EDT Reality 3-km HRRR Explicit Convection 6 hr forecast 13-km RAP Parameterized Convection 6 hr forecast Aircraft must Navigate Around Thunderstorms No Storm Structure No Estimate of Permeability Accurate Storm Structure Accurate Estimate of Permeability From G. Manikin (NCEP HRRR Briefing)

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing8 (Sample h QPF for all 26 members from the parallel SREF)

Ops vs Parallel SREF Systems Operational SREF 16 km, 35 L members 3 dynamic cores / ICs – NEMS/NMMB from NAM – WRF NMM from GFS – WRF ARW from RAP Limited physics diversity Some clustering by core/IC Parallel SREF (being tested) 16 km, 40 L members 2 dynamic cores / ICs – NEMS/NMMB (ctl + 12 perts) – WRF ARW (ctl + 12 perts) – Even mix of NAM, GFS, RAP in perts More physics diversity in NMMB & WRF ARW NMMB WRF ARW Reduced clustering by cores Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing9 Both versions of SREF have ICs: a mix of GEFS and regional perturbations LBCs: from different GEFS (global ensemble) members

Future Plans: Combine All Systems 10 Longer-range guidance at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) = multiples of HRRR + NAMRR nests (60 h?) Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) = multiples of RAP + NAM parent (84 h?) Shorter-range guidance at more frequent intervals (≤ 1 h) HREF Rapid Refresh (HREF-RR ) = HREF run at hourly intervals or less (18 h?) SREF Rapid Refresh (SREF-RR) = SREF run at hourly intervals (24 h?) Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing RAP HRRR 13 km 3 km 12 km 3 km NAMRR + = (? - forecast ranges are TBD)

Improved Aviation Products Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing11 Aircraft icing (see next slide) Flight restrictions (with AWC) Cloud ceiling heights Visibilities Low-level wind shear Turbulence Precipitation type (rain, snow, freezing rain, sleet) Simulated radar structures of severe local storms (with SPC; see 2 slides later ) Mode (discrete cells vs lines) Cellular structure (supercellular or not) Evolution Relocatable 1.33-km Fire WX Nests (Next slide shows a N-S cross section of clouds & precipitation from a recent winter storm)

Cross Section from 1.33-km Fire WX Nest Feb 2015NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing12 >0°C <0°C (From Eric Aligo) Composite Reflectivity Rimed snow (2<RF<5) Graupel (5<RF<20) Sleet (RF>20) (Temp)Temp

Old NAM Microphysics New Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics Observed Reflectivity >= 55 dBZ < 45 dBZ >= 55 dBZ AB AB A BA B A B Improved Simulated Radar Reflectivity Structures of Severe Local Storms (NAM nests) h Forecasts at 20 May Moore, OK Tornado Outbreak (From Eric Aligo) 4-km NMMB Forecasts Vertical Cross Sections A B Horizontal Maps “W” Weaker Storm Stronger Storm (Improved) Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing

NCEP Global Models Recent Global Forecast System (GFS) upgrade – ~13 km, 64 L, 0 to 10 days – ~33 km, 64 L, 11 to 16 days Upcoming Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) upgrade (~20 members) – ~27 km, 64 L, 0 to 8 days – ~33 km, 64L, 9 to 16 days NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 14

Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Requirements – Provide skillful forecasts out to 30 days – Match the computational efficiency of the GFS – Include advanced data assimilation & physics – Be flexible to meet future demands Models under consideration – GFS Global Spectral Model NCEP) – Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model NCEP) – Non-hydrostatic Flow Following Icosahedral Model ESRL) – Cubed-Sphere Finite Volume GFDL) – Model for Prediction Across Scales NCAR) – Navy’s Non-hydrostatic Unified Model NRL) NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 15 (Replace GFS In 2019?)

Physics schemes in 13 NMMB members Physics 1: NAM1, NAM2, GFS Micro/Physics 2: Fer_hires, GFS, WSM6, Thompson Mod-Mem IC IC pertLBCs Physics 1 Physics 2GWD Land Surface ConvPBL Sfc layer Microphys LW, SW Rad cleffampLSMInitial Soil pert ? nmmb_ctlNDAS Blending (GEFS + SREF) GFS BMJ old shal MYJ Fer_hiresRRTMcleffamp=1NoahNAMno nmmb_n1 GEFS 2 SASGFSMYJWSM6GFDLcleffamp=0.5NoahNAMno nmmb_p1 GEFS 1 BMJ new shal MYJ Fer_hiresRRTMcleffamp=2NoahNAMno nmmb_n2 GEFS 4 SASGFSMYJ Fer_hires GFDLcleffamp=1NoahNAMDrier soil nmmb_p2 GEFS 3 BMJ old shal MYJ Thompson RRTMcleffamp=0.5NoahNAMDrier soil nmmb_n3 GFS Blending (GEFS + SREF) GEFS 6 SASGFSMYJFer_hiresGFDLcleffamp=2NoahNAMDrier soil nmmb_p3 GEFS 5 BMJ new shal MYJ WSM6RRTMcleffamp=1NoahNAM Drier soil nmmb_n4 GEFS 8 SASGFSMYJ Thompso n RRTMcleffamp=0.5NoahNAM no nmmb_p4 GEFS 7 BMJ old shal MYJ Fer_hires GFDLcleffamp=2NoahNAM no nmmb_n5 RAP Blending (GEFS + SREF) GEFS 10 SASGFSMYJ WSM6 RRTMcleffamp=1NoahNAMDrier soil nmmb_p5 GEFS 9 BMJ new shal MYJ Thompson RRTMcleffamp=0.5NoahNAM Drier soil nmmb_n6 GEFS 1 2 SASGFS MYJFer_hiresGFDLcleffamp=2NoahNAMno nmmb_p6 GEFS 1 1 BMJ old shal MYJ WSM6 GFDLcleffamp=1NoahNAM no (return)return

Physics schemes in 13 ARW members Physics 1: NCAR, NAM, RAP Micro/Physics 2: WSM6, Fer, Thompson Mod-Mem IC IC pertLBCs Physics 1 Physics 2 Land surface ConvPBL Sfc layer MicrophyLW RadSW RadStochastic LSMInitialSoil pert? arw_ctlRAP Blending (GEFS + SREF) GFSKFYSUMM5WSM6RRTMG noNoahNAMno arw_n1 GEFS 1 4 BMJMYJ FerGFDL noNoahNAMDrier soil arw_p1 GEFS 1 3 GrellMYNN Thompson Old RRTMGSFCnoRUCNAMno arw_n2 GEFS 1 6 KFYSUMM5FerGFDL noRUC NAMno arw_p2 GEFS 1 5 BMJMYJ ThompsonRRTMG noNoahNAMno arw_n3 GFS Blending (GEFS + SREF) GEFS 1 8 GrellMYNN WSM6RRTMG noNoahNAMDrier soil arw_p3 GEFS 17KFYSUMM5ThompsonOld RRTMGSFCnoNoahNAMno arw_n4 GEFS 20 BMJMYJ WSM6RRTMG noRUCNAMno arw_p4 GEFS 19 KFYSUMM5FerGFDL noNoahNAMDrier soil arw_n5NDAS Blending (GEFS + SREF) GEFS 2 GrellMYNN FerGFDL noNoahNAMno arw_p5 GEFS 1 KFYSUMM5WSM6RRTMG noRUCNAMno arw_n6 GEFS 4 BMJMYJ ThompsonOld RRTMGSFCnoNoahNAMDrier soil arw_p6GEFS 3 GrellMYNN ThompsonRRTMG noRUCNAMno (return)return

Cross Section from 1.33-km Fire WX Nest Jan 2015 NGGPS Physics Workshop18 (From Eric Aligo) >0°C 0°C<0°C (return)return