1 Critical Water Information for Floods to Droughts NOAA’s Hydrology Program January 4, 2006 Responsive to Natural Disasters Forecasts for Hazard Risk Management Valuable Data for Local and State Governments Detailed Information for Zip Code Level Analysis

2 Predicting Floods to Droughts In Your Neighborhood River channel Developed Shrubs/Grass Agriculture Wetlands Forecast Point Forecast Basin River Services (600 miles per forecast point) Water Resource Services (6 square mile forecast basins) River Conditions Soil Conditions

3 Protecting Life, Livelihood, and Way of Life River Services River flow and stage for specific locations –Helpful in rivers and adjacent flood plains –Limited ability to support multi- hazard natural disasters Information to deploy emergency resources throughout forecast region River point forecasts for long-term water planning for power supply and agriculture Water Resource Services Detailed water supply and soil condition forecasts for hazard resilient communities – Run-off or River flow – Soil moisture – Soil temperature – Precipitation – Snowpack – Surface storage – Ground water – Water temperature – Water quality Information for first responders precisely targeted Short- to long-term water risk forecasts support hazard resistant businesses (including agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship Water Predictions for Life Decisions

4 Hydrologic Modeling Meteorological inputs Physical, Institutional, & Legal Features Topography Vegetation, land use Lakes, glaciers Soil properties Ground water River channel shape River depth/flow Dams, locks, levees Reservoir operations Irrigation, drains Water rights

5 Long-term Vision: Integrated Water Science Coupled ocean/atmospheric/ land-surface model (global) Coupled atmospheric/land-surface model (regional) Interface with Estuary Models, Water Quality Models WEATHER & CLIMATE FOCUS WATER FOCUS Observing Systems Common Hydrologic Land-Surface Modeling System (Uncoupled) Research Labs Land Surface Hydrology & Water Resources Modeling

6 Long-term Vision for Climate-Water Research-to-Operations Climate Research Models Ensemble Forecasts Surface and Ground Water Models Service Delivery Systems Decision Support Tools Water Customers: Supply Irrigation Navigation Safety Hydro-Testbed / Hydroclimatic Component Climate Testbed

7 Enable Full Utilization of Existing Observing Systems –Development of data processing and assimilation capabilities Science-to-Operations –Test new stream flow prediction models and forecasting techniques for time scales of hours to months Long-term Vision: Hydrology Testbed Airborne Satellite Radar In-Situ physiographic New physiographic data AHPS Infrastructure New observing systems NOAA NASA USGS USDA DOD EPA DOE Water Resources Data Assimilation and CHPS OTHERS Experimental River Forecast Center

8 R&D Algorithms Prototype Operational Algorithms “Operational” Environment Collaborative R&D Partners (NOAA Labs, Universities) Operational Implementation Validation & Verification New Science Users & Customers (RFCs, WFOs, Other Agencies) Feedback Hydrology Testbed: RTO Process

9 IT/Software Manager AHPS Water Resources Science Manager NIDIS “Operational” Environment Core Project and NASA grant Stage1: Hydrology Testbed Cluster Computing

10 Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed Development System for Water Resource Models –Structured software compatible with the Community Hydrologic Prediction System –Common environment and platform for in-house R&D and RTO that are integrated and fully coordinated –Open platform for collaborative R&D and RTO, including objective and transparent testing and evaluation –One-stop storehouse for new and emerging capabilities and experimental products for the RFCs –Laboratory for prototyping the next-generation hydrologic forecasting system and its computational and communications infrastructure “Operational” Environment –National domain Full domain modeled, focus on RFC test basins –Develop and test new science, demonstrate pathway to operations, conduct retrospective analyses –Requires modest cluster computing resources –Staff Science Coordinator Software Development/Architecture Specialist Synergism with Other NOAA Testbeds –Climate Testbed –Hydromet Testbed –HEPEX Testbeds Oversight –HOSIP

11 Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed

12 From Climate Predictions to Water Management Climate Prediction: Temperature Precipitation Snowpack Climate Prediction: Temperature Precipitation Snowpack Hydrology and Water Resources Modeling, Data Assimilation Water Management Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Water Prediction Decision Support Tools Water Predictions for Life Decisions Drought Mitigation Flood Management Flash Flood Prediction Water Supply Transportation Emergency Management Agriculture Ecosystem Stewardship