Dan M. Kahan Yale University & 10^3 others Two science communication puzzles...

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

N = 1,737. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, April/May CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means. Subjects classified in relation to “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.78). Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

> avg Left_Right < avg Left_Right N = 1,737. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, April/May CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means. Subjects classified in relation to “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.78). Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Rep. Frank Lucas (R. Okla.) Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Rep. Frank Lucas (R. Okla.) Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Climate-change resistant chicken! Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 2:

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution?

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution? N = Nationally representative sample From Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015). True False “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

The “missing audience hypothesis... ”

Engagement Science Curiosity

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement “Natural audience hypothesis” “Missing audience hypothesis” Science Curiosity ?

a cool show... The “missing audience hypothesis... ”

YIF Clip: Origins of color vision

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity Existing audience “Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity Existing audience “Missing audience”

Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA)  I am curious about the world in which we live  I find it boring to hear about new ideas  I would enjoy visiting a science museum at the weekend  I would like to be given a science book as a present  I get bored when watching science programs on TV State of the art “Science Curiosity”/“curiosity”

“Science Curiosity Index” 1.Measures: mixed strategy 2.Psychometric properties 3.Validation...

Sample self-report item

Sample (self-report) behavior

Performance measure

“Science Curiosity Index” 1.Measures: mixed strategy 2.Psychometric properties 3.Validation...

BSCIENCE science curiosity “Science Curiosity Index” (SCI) science curiosity Read science book in last yr Visited science lecture in last yr

“Science Curiosity Index” 1.Measures: mixed strategy 2.Psychometric properties 3.Validation...

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity Existing audience “Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity Existing audience “Missing audience”

Self-report engagement

Behavioral engagement

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment (“OSI”) OSI_1.0OSI_2.0

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment (“OSI”)

Ordinary Science Intellience Engagement Engagement with clip: SCI vs. OSI

Engagement Ordinary Science Intellience Engagement with clip: SCI vs. OSI Science Curiosity Index

Engagement with clip: SCI vs. OSI SCI OSI Scale percentile Engagement st16th50th84th99th Ordinary Science Intellience Science Curiosity Index bars denote 0.95 CIs

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity Existing audience “Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity Existing audience “Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis... ” Engagement Science Curiosity Existing audience “Missing audience”

SCI: group “differences”...

M = 0.10 (0.03)M = (0.03)

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Abortion procedure Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control HPV Vaccination Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists Cultural Cognition Worldviews cats/stupid birds

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk

The “missing audience”????!!!!!

Dalets are pro-science/technology

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution? N = Nationally representative sample From Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015). True False “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

SCI: group “differences”...

M = 0.10 (0.03)M = (0.03)

engagement Science Curiosity Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

engagement Science Curiosity Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers” Evolution believer

engagement Science Curiosity Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers” shaded regeions represent 0.95 confidence zones for estimated means. Science Curiosity

Engagement deficit: Evolution “belief” vs. cultural style...

Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever

Was the information “believable”?

probability of agreeing Science Curiosity probability of agreeing Science Curiosity “I found the information in the documentary convincing.” “It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.” Science Curiosity Was the information “believable”? Probability of agreeing

probability of agreeing Science Curiosity probability of agreeing Science Curiosity “I found the information in the documentary convincing.” Evolution believer “It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.” Science Curiosity Was the information “believable”? Probability of agreeing

probability of agreeing Science Curiosity probability of agreeing Science Curiosity “I found the information in the documentary convincing.” Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever “It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.” Science Curiosity Was the information “believable”? Probability of agreeing

OSI item response profile

probability of agreeing Science Curiosity probability of agreeing Science Curiosity “I found the information in the documentary convincing.” Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever “It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.” Science Curiosity Was the information “believable”? Probability of agreeing

probability of agreeing Science Curiosity probability of agreeing Science Curiosity “I found the information in the documentary convincing.” Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever “It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.” Science Curiosity Was the information “believable”? Probability of agreeing probability of agreeing OSI probability of agreeing OSI Ordinary Science Intelligence Probability of agreeing probability of agreeing OSI probability of agreeing OSI Ordinary Science Intelligence Probability of agreeing

probability of agreeing Science Curiosity probability of agreeing Science Curiosity “I found the information in the documentary convincing.” Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever “It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.” Science Curiosity Was the information “believable”? Probability of agreeing probability of agreeing OSI probability of agreeing OSI Ordinary Science Intelligence Probability of agreeing probability of agreeing OSI probability of agreeing OSI Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Evolution believer Evolution disbeliever Ordinary Science Intelligence Probability of agreeing

SCI, OSI, Evolution disbelief & engagement

Prob. of requesting full documentary Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution?