The 2012 NH “Beer Poll” CNN speaks to voters at 20 Manchester, New Hampshire, bars to "scientifically" determine the GOP primary winner.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Play Schoolhouse Rock Electoral College

Advertisements

Republican Candidates April - October. Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Friday November 8, 2013 OBJ: SWBAT understand the primary/caucus system and evaluate which is better and why? Drill: What does the word delegate mean?

DECISION 2012 Presidential Election November 5, 2012 Hardeeville Elementary School Kindergarteners Voting For President MOCK ELECTION.

2012 Republican Nominees for President ON THE ISSUES.

Republican Candidates Jack Johnson. Line-Up John Huntsman Herman Cane Michelle Bachman Mitt Romney Rick Perry Ron PaulNewt Gingrich Rick Santorum.

Republican Candidates 2012 March. CNN projects a Romney victory in Wyoming caucuses Votes Delegates Mitt Romney 39%10 Rick Santorum 33% 9 Ron Paul of.

 Note the specialized vocabulary!  Difference between nominate and elect  WHO nominates?  Who decides how the nomination is going to take place? 

Political Science Tony E. Carey Jr., Ph.D. Assistant Professor Department of Political Science Racial and Ethnic Politics in the 2012 Presidential Primaries.

Warm-up: Answer the following question on your warm-up page. How many times have your parents voted for the president?

Claire Oaks – Barlett, IL April 2, 2012 Artemus Ward Dept. of Political Science Northern Illinois University

Polling. Interpreting a poll Who conducted the poll? How was it conducted? When was it conducted? How many people were sampled? Is the margin of error.

Economic Ties with China Greer Howard. The Background China has the third largest economy Growing more that 10% each year for the past 30 years Still.

2012 Presidential Election Results Updated November 12, 2012 Producer: Jenna Fugate Director: Jessica Guzik.

Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins.

Interactive Notes: How were candidates chosen in the past?

FrontPage : NNIGN Last Word: Continue working on website.

Selecting a President 2012: Primaries & Caucuses.

2012 GOP Primary Season So far…. Republican Players 2012 Primary Season.

The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections. The Public’s Interest Average # of Viewers (Millions) Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data:

Religion and the 2012 SC GOP Presidential Primary The elephant in the elephant’s living room Bob Botsch USC Aiken.

Presidential Candidates 2012 Who is “closest” to you?

Selecting a President: Primaries & Caucuses.  Stage 1: Caucuses & Primaries The Battle for the Party Faithful  Stage 2: Nominating Conventions “Glorified.

Selecting a President 2012: Primaries & Caucuses.

Running for POTUS Caucus – Document drafted every four years by each party stating the policy positions of the party –General party-wide issue stances.

The Iowa Caucus. What is a caucus? a caucus is a gathering of group members who meet to discuss issues of the group's governance and/or public policy.

Campaign Strategies & Tactics: The Road to the White House Lessons from the 2012 Presidential Election.

Presidential Primaries: pt 2. Who are the frontrunners? 2015 = 2011, 2007, 2003.

Presidential Election Process Steps and Procedures.

Election Calendar EVENTPurposeDate 1. Primaries and Caucuses in each state and U.S. territory (ex. Republican Primary of 2012) Mitt Romney (42). Republican.

The Language of Politics

2008 vs Presidential Election Results

Election Process Nomination Campaigns Invisible Primary Initial Contests Mist Clearing The National Convention National Election.

Primaries & Caucuses. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc., Publishing as Longman Party Functions Political Party An organization that seeks political.

Elections. How candidates are chosen – After candidates declare that they are running and fill their petition, parties must choose who will run Not all.

What role do elections and campaigns have within American society? LESSON 6 Elections and Campaigns.

The race to the White House What is a primary and a caucus? Why do we have them? Video.

Campaign Plan Assignment One: District Research GOVT Spring 2015.

About the Poll The Washington Poll is a non-partisan, academic survey research project sponsored by the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity.

Texting.wmv As their state financing dwindled, four-year public universities increased their published tuition and fees almost 8 percent this year,

The Republican Primaries. Office Hours When – Today – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B.

The Very Visible, Invisible Primary. Office Hours When – Today – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B.

What is a critical election? a maintaining election? a deviating election? a reinstating election?

What’s the Difference? Primaries and Caucuses What’s the Difference? 2012 Republican Presidential Race.

Not for public distribution Democrats VS Republicans U.S. Elections November 6.

Sadat Chair at the University of Maryland With Dahaf Institute, Israel February 2012 Israeli Public Opinion Survey Professor Shibley Telhami, Principal.

The President I 2/9/2012. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – understand and interpret the.

Political Parties and Politics 5/7AGENDA: LOG IN TO COMP NOW! Go to

Mediated Primaries Brian Lain, Communication Studies.

Setting the Stage. Office Hours When – Today – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B.

V&E #14 Primary Elections How do we choose the party’s candidate?

The McCain Nomination in 2008 The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule.

Selecting a President 2012: Primaries & Caucuses.

What is.... The Republican Candidates Ron Paul Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich.

The United States protects its national security most directly by

Clark County Boasts High Minority Population and Largest Metro Area in Nevada February 18, 2016 | Justin C. Brown Sources: Paul Davis, “Does Nevada Deserve.

Presidential Primaries: pt 2. Themes What makes a frontrunner (before any votes cast)? Where do media expectations come from? Why so much volatility in.

American Government and Organization PS1301 Tuesday, 2 November.

MONEY & THE ELECTION PROCESS Pgs CAMPAIGN SPENDING  Money plays a key role in politics  It does present serious problems to democratic govt.

Road to the White House. Decision to Run  Press conference or other announcement… a person decides to run and “throws his hat into the ring”  Need money,

Nominations, Elections, & Campaigns AP US Government Lacks.

Romney Wins Iowa Caucus by 8 Votes. The Iowa caucuses sounded the opening bell of the Republican contest for president. Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

U.S. Election System Kangwon National University November 23, 2011.

Chp 7 Sect 2 Journal A ______________is the device by which a voter registers a choice in an election. Pg. 190 ____________the place where the voters who.

Thursday Lunch Lasagna# & Wheat Roll Vegetarian Chef Salad*

42 Republicans and 36 Democrats.

Selecting a President 2012:

Selecting a President 2012:

Israeli Public Opinion Survey

Selecting a President 2016:

Presentation transcript:

The 2012 NH “Beer Poll” CNN speaks to voters at 20 Manchester, New Hampshire, bars to "scientifically" determine the GOP primary winner.

What are your expectations? What type of person might support each candidate?

Mitt Romney

Ron Paul

Mitt Romney

Newt Gingrich

Mitt Romney

Ron Paul

Mitt Romney

Jon Huntsman

Ron Paul

Newt Gingrich

Mitt Romney

Ron Paul

Mitt Romney

Ron Paul

The Results

In Percentage Terms Votes % Mitt Romney1155% Ron Paul 525% Newt Gingrich 315% Jon Huntsman 1 5% Rick Santorum 0 0% Rick Perry 0 0%

How does this “poll” match the CNN pre- election survey of registered NH voters? WMUR/University of NH poll Mitt Romney44% Ron Paul20% Rick Santorum 8% Newt Gingrich 8% Jon Huntsman 7% Rick Perry 1% NBC/Marist University poll Mitt Romney42% Ron Paul22% Rick Santorum13% Newt Gingrich 9% Jon Huntsman 9% Rick Perry 1%

How does this “poll” match the CNN pre- election survey of registered NH voters? The Beer Poll correctly ranks Romney, Paul and Gingrich. There is no support for Santorum or Perry in the Beer Poll. Small N poll should miss candidates with little support.

The Details ID GenderHairBeardLocationBeerCandidate 1 FBrnMurphy's TaproomShipyard PumkinheadMitt Romney 2 FBrnPortland Pie CompanyShipyard Applehead AleMitt Romney 3 FBrnJ.W. Hill's Sports BarHarpoon IPARon Paul 4 MGrayNXO On ElmStella ArtoisMitt Romney 5 MBrNShaskeenSmutty NoseMitt Romney 6 FBlnAte Floors DownBud LightNewt Gingrich 7 MNoneNMargaritasDos EquesNewt Gingrich 8 MGrayNMcGarveysCoors LightMitt Romney 9 MBrmustacheWild Rover PubGuinnessMitt Romney 10 MBrNThe FarmLongtailMitt Romney 11 MBrYMint BistroSam Adams Cherry Chocolate BockRon Paul 12 MBrYFireflyScrimshaw PilsnerMitt Romney 13 FBrnHookedSam Adams Winter LagerJon Hunstman 14 MBrYStrange Brew TavernBlue Point Optical IllusionRon Paul 15 MBlmustacheMillie's TavernMillie's Pumpkin AleNewt Gingrich 16 MBrYJillian'sCoors LightMitt Romney 17 MBrNK LoungePabst Blue RibbonRon Paul 18 MBrYPenuche's GrillBud LightMitt Romney 19 MBrNPJsCoors LightMitt Romney 20 FBrnDynasty LoungeShipyard Applehead AleRon Paul

Relationships FemaleMale Romney %64%55% ~Romney %36%45% 61420