Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 June 2010 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

Canada and US: Precipitation continued to impact the Pacific Northwest but diminished in northern California. Models indicate wet weather over the next week in the northern plains and south-central Canada. Mexico and Central America: Rain showers fell in western Central America, but an increase in precipitation is expected in this region over the next 7 days. Eurasia: Heavy rainfall impacted parts of southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent. Tropical Cyclone Three, currently in the Arabian Sea, is expected to impact Pakistan and northwest India in the next few days. Highlights

ENSO Current Status General Summary: ENSO neutral conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperatures (SST) continue to decrease across much of the Pacific Ocean. Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June-August During the last 4 weeks (9 May – 5 Jun 2010), SSTs were at least 0.5 deg C below average between 155 W and 90W. For more information go to:

MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: During the majority of the past week, the MJO index showed little amplitude. The GFS forecasts indicate a strengthening signal during week-1 and eastward propagation during week-2, although other models do not indicate as strong of a signal.

Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Seasonably dry conditions have persisted in the southwest US. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred in southeast Asia and above average precipitation has occurred in eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEPMonsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (30 May - 5 Jun 2010), anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers were located over the western US and western Europe. An anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation center was located over eastern Asia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. C A A

Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (30 May - 5 Jun 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the eastern US and eastern Europe (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, rain continued to impact the northwest US, but diminished in northern California.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, precipitation was above average in the northwest and north-central US and south-central Canada. Precipitation was below average in the southern Plains.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation anomalies were similar to the 15 day period.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum The temperature pattern was similar to the previous week with above average temperatures observed in eastern Canada and below average temperatures in parts of western Canada. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum A very warm and humid air mass was in place over much of the eastern US. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Jun 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts wet weather for the northern Plains and south-central Canada. This is expected to provide some relief to drought stricken areas of northern Wisconsin.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts wet weather for the southeast US and much drier weather across the Pacific northwest. Forecasts from 7 Jun 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 24 May 2010 Valid 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Forecast from 1 Jun 2010 Valid 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Observed 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Anomaly Total

Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly For more information see: During the past 7 days, seasonable showers impacted western Central America, while dry weather impacted southern Mexico.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, Tropical Storm Agatha brought heavy rain to northern Central America. The storm made landfall May 29 near the Mexico/Guatemala border.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was below average in Mexico and above average in Central America.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 7 Jun 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts active convection to bring rain to parts of Central America.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 7 Jun 2010– Week 2 For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts a low pressure system to bring above average rainfall to northern Central America. Conditions are also favorable for tropical cyclone development in this region.

Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 24 May 2010 Valid 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Forecast from 1 Jun 2010 Valid 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Observed 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Anomaly Total

Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, wet weather impacted eastern Europe and parts of the Gulf of Guinea region. Tropical Cyclone Phet developed in the Arabian Sea on May 31, 2010 and brought precipitation to coastal regions of Oman, Iran, Pakistan, and India. Heavy precipitation was observed over Bangladesh and southern China.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in the same areas as in the 7 day period due to recent heavy rains, and precipitation was below average in eastern China and India.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, below average precipitation is apparent over parts of central Africa.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum Western Europe and northwest Africa were warm and dry the past week.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Near to above average temperatures have been observed for the past 4 weeks.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Warm and dry weather continued in central India.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 7 Jun 2010 – Days 1-7 For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Monday at 4pm) For Days 1-7 above average rainfall is forecast for southern India, parts of southeast Asia, and the western Maritime Continent in association with the Southeast Asian Monsoon.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 above average rainfall is forecast for southeast India, parts of southeast Asia, and the western Maritime Continent in association with a forecast strengthening of the Southeast Asian Monsoon and forecast enhanced, although weak, MJO activity. Forecasts from 7 Jun 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 24 May 2010 Valid 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Forecast from 1 Jun 2010 Valid 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Observed 31 May – 6 Jun 2010 Anomaly Total

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