Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Scenarios Research up to date Monika Zurek FAO April 2005

GECAFS – research focus 1.Classifying and characterizing the major food systems existing today for GEC studies, 2.Investigating the vulnerability of existing food systems to GEC and its consequences for different parts of society, 3.Sketching plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems, 4.Based on the analysis of plausible futures, devising decision support systems for the formulation of diverse policy-instruments to adapt global food system to GEC.

What are scenarios? Scenarios = Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what might happen under particular assumptions, told as stories and backed up by quantification and modeling Different from Projections are heavily dependent on assumptions about drivers and boundary conditions. Projections lead to "if this, then that" statements. Predictions are seen by the public and decision makers as things that will happen no matter what they do. Forecast is the best estimate from a particular method, model, or individual.

Boundaries Spatial Thematic Temporal Boundaries Spatial Thematic Temporal Key Dimensions Multi-dimensional space of variables Key Dimensions Multi-dimensional space of variables Current Situation Historic context Institutional description Quantitative accounts Current Situation Historic context Institutional description Quantitative accounts Driving Forces Trends Processes Driving Forces Trends Processes Critical Uncertainties Resolution alters course of events Critical Uncertainties Resolution alters course of events Anatomy of Scenarios Plot Captures dynamics Communicates effectively Plot Captures dynamics Communicates effectively Image of the Future Source: P. Raskin 2002

Good Scenarios ‘Good‘ scenarios should  be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘)  be internally consistent and coherent  be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity  meet the goals of scenario exercise Source: T. Henrichs 2003

A conceptual framework for the GECAFS scenario exercise ? ? ? ? ?

Another framework

And an analytical framework

Linking scenarios across scales  Start from basic questions that project wants to be answered – key uncertainties differ  The storylines developed at one scale can be played out at another scale.  The scenarios developed at a higher scale can be used as boundary conditions for lower scale scenarios, which then develop their own storyline.  The underlying assumptions and world views played out in the scenarios developed at one level, can be applied to developing scenarios at another level.  (Use no global scenarios at all – no links and map back)  -> leave flexibility!!!  The scenarios developed at a higher scale can be used to create scenarios about policy and management options currently discussed at a lower scale.

Possible building blocks for the GECAFS scenarios (1)  Driving forces changing food systems, GEC and their interactions Demographics Economic development Science and technology Socio-political developments Cultural drivers Bio-physical drivers  Indicators of food security, food systems  Thresholds, irreversible trends in GEC and ecological feed back loops

Possible building blocks for the GECAFS scenarios (2)  Existing scenario exercises Global scenarios that describe a wide range of plausible futures Global scenarios that focus on changes in GEC Regional scenarios carried out in the GECAFS areas

Results of the 1 st GECAFS scenarios workshop  Define a set of generic, qualitative global scenarios based on existing scenario exercises and modeling efforts;  Build more detailed qualitative-quantitative regional scenarios, based on the GECAFS global scenarios, for the GECAFS project regions which focus on issues important to the region; and  Design an iterative process on how both scenario processes can inform and update each other.

Objectives for 2 nd GECAFS scenarios workshop  Identify which global drivers included in existing global scenarios are most relevant to food systems  Determine which elements of existing scenario storylines are most important for GECAFS scenario building efforts  Establish four global scenarios for GECAFS analyses  Develop and decide on options for linking scenario exercises across scales and/or develop multi-scale scenarios for GECAFS

Options for GECAFS process  Scenarios of possible alternative baselines, build on different paradigms about the future, REGIONAL food system related policy void Handed down to regions Feedback to global scenarios Describe coping strategies at regional level, unless they are really changing  Scenarios already show different outcomes of interactions between GEC and food policy responses -> interplay between actions and outcomes More complete picture Evaluation of different options