SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE. HAS THE EARTH WARMED? Climatic Research Unit, UK.

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Presentation transcript:

SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE

HAS THE EARTH WARMED? Climatic Research Unit, UK

HAS THE EARTH WARMED?

MANKIND - EARTH CO 2

SUN - EARTH Mathew (5)

SUN - EARTH The solar open magnetic field, solar wind and energetic particles affect the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere

SUN - EARTH Correlations between solar activity and climate indicators Cycle length NH temperature Friis-Christensen & Lassen (1994)

SUN - EARTH Correlations between solar activity and climate indicators H. Avercamp

SUN - EARTH: Possible Mechanisms Total irradiance variations: energy input into the Earth's atmosphere UV irradiance variations: c hanges in stratospheric chemistry Modulation of cosmic ray flux by solar magnetism: changes in cloud cover

VARIABLE SUN

PASSAGE OF A SUNSPOT GROUP

FLUX TUBES

PASSAGE OF A FACULAR GROUP

3- COMPONENT MODEL F( ) - quiet Sun flux (Fontenla et al. 1993) F( ) - sunspot flux; separate umbra/penumbra (cool Kurucz models) F( ) - facular flux (modified P-model; Fontenla et al. 1993; Unruh et al. 2000)  (t) - filling factor of sunspots (MDI continuum)  (t) - filling factor of faculae (MDI magnetograms) s f

FILLING FACTORS  = 1 (or 0)   s  f  = 1-  -  q s f

TOTAL FLUX

TSI: Krivova et al. 2002

MODEL VS. OBSERVATIONS

SPECTRAL IRRADIANCE

SECULAR CHANGE: Stellar Evidence Baliunas & Jastrow 1990

SECULAR CHANGE: Heliospheric Evidence

SECULAR CHANGE: Heliospheric Evidence

SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE Solanki & Krivova 2002

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