Tom LeFebvre GSD/ESRL 20 November 2013. What is FDSE? The NWS Weather Ready Nation Roadmap outlines concepts for the future of forecasting in the NWS.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Advertisements

Gridded Forecast Feedback System (GFFS) Verification Summit September 8, 2011 Verification Summit September 8, 2011.

Chapter 10 Excel: Data Handling or What do we do with all that data?

Pasewark & Pasewark 1 Excel Lesson 6 Enhancing a Worksheet Microsoft Office 2007: Introductory.

With TimeCard appointments are tagged with information that converts them into time sheets. This way users can report time and expenses from their Outlook.

Creating Custom Forms. 2 Design and create a custom form You can create a custom form by modifying an existing form or creating a new form. Either way,

Automating Tasks With Macros. 2 Design a switchboard and dialog box for a graphical user interface Database developers interact directly with Access.

Brian Ancell, Cliff Mass, Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Understanding and Comparing Distributions

Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 1 It's what you learn after you know it all that counts. John Wooden Key Terms and Review (Chapter 6) Enhancing.

Tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting : products and tools

1 Integrated Development Environment Building Your First Project (A Step-By-Step Approach)

Tutorial 6 Using Form Tools and Creating Custom Forms

MANAGEMENT SUPPORT SYSTEMS II 7. Business Intelligence.

AWIPS-II Data Delivery Project Overview December 2013.

Marcel Casado NCAR/RAP WEATHER WARNING TOOL NCAR.

Innovations in Justice Information Sharing Strategies and Best Practices November 30, 2006 Lisa M. Palmieri, CCA-Supervisory Intelligence Analyst President,

Geoffrey Stano– NASA / SPoRT – ENSCO, Inc. Brian Carcione– NWS Huntsville Jason Burks– NWS Huntsville Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, OK July.

Verification Summit AMB verification: rapid feedback to guide model development decisions Patrick Hofmann, Bill Moninger, Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander,

PM2.5 Model Performance Evaluation- Purpose and Goals PM Model Evaluation Workshop February 10, 2004 Chapel Hill, NC Brian Timin EPA/OAQPS.

Enhancing Digital Services Changing Weather – Changing Forecasts Aviation Climate Fire Weather Marine Weather and Sea Ice Public Forecasts and Warnings.

The Utilization of the Graphic Forecast Generator (GFE) to Locally Apply CPC’s Week Two Forecast.

NOAA’s National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database: Status Update LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Unidata Policy Committee.

Pablo Santos WFO Miami, FL Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS David Sharp WFO Melbourne, FL rd IHC St Petersburg, FL PS/DS “HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.”

Woody Roberts Tom LeFebvre Kevin Manross Paul Schultz Evan Polster Xiangbao Jing ESRL/Global Systems Division Application of RUA/RTMA to AWIPS and the.

VERIFICATION OF NDFD GRIDDED FORECASTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES John Horel 1, David Myrick 1, Bradley Colman 2, Mark Jackson 3 1 NOAA Cooperative Institute.

NWS Partners Meeting NWS Roadmap Science & Technology NWS Roadmap Science & Technology Brad Colman Marie Lovern Brad Colman Marie Lovern June 29, 2011.

National Weather Service Scott Jacobs David Plummer and Stephen Gilbert NOAA/NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Jason Tuell, Steve Schotz.

Introduction to ArcGIS for Environmental Scientists Module 3 – GIS Analysis Model Builder.

1 John Ferree Severe Storms Services NOAA National Weather Service NWS Partners Meeting AMS 2009 Annual Meeting Phoenix, AZ January 15, 2009 National Weather.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan For National Digital Forecast Database Science and Technology Infusion Plan For National Digital Forecast Database.

Integrated Hazard Information Services Workshop October Boulder, Co.

NWS Operations Proving Ground Update Chad Gravelle OCONUS Meeting 20 June 2013.

XP New Perspectives on Microsoft Office Access 2003 Tutorial 10 1 Microsoft Office Access 2003 Tutorial 10 – Automating Tasks With Macros.

Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Current Operational Capabilities, Issues and Perspectives Britt Westergard, Service Hydrologist WFO Jackson, KY Q2.

Digital Aviation Services Paving the way for aviation forecasts of the future Cammye Sims Cammye Sims.

NWS Performance Management System DRAFT PLAN FY06 Q2.

SAFESEAS Overview July, 2006 Michael E. Churma Jason Taylor NOAA National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology Meteorological Development Laboratory.

1 Vision for Marine and Coastal Services Digital Products Jamie Vavra Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services.

Microsoft Access 2003 Illustrated Introductory Using Forms.

AWIPS DATA VISUALIZATION AND MONITORING SYSTEM FOR OPERATIONAL RECORDS ADVISOR AWIPS DATA VISUALIZATION AND MONITORING SYSTEM FOR OPERATIONAL RECORDS September.

Omar Baddour Chief World Climate Data and Monitoring WMO, Geneva WMO Climate Watch System Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) Implementation.

Microsoft Office 2013 Try It! Chapter 4 Storing Data in Access.

Update on Satellite Proving Ground Activities at the Operations Proving Ground Chad Gravelle GOES-R/JPSS All-Hands Call – 20 Jan 2016.

Chapter 3 Graphs and Charts. Agenda Chart Object linking and embedding.

April 2002 MDL Collaboration Workshop – 29 Sept Integrated Hazards Information Services 1 Integrated Hazard Information Services Tom LeFebvre Global.

XP New Perspectives on Microsoft Office Access 2003, Second Edition- Tutorial 6 1 Microsoft Office Access 2003 Tutorial 6 – Creating Custom Forms.

Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF Charles R. Sampson NRL (PI) Contributors: Ann Schrader, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Chris Sisko,

NWS Digital Services 1 Summary of Customer Feedback on NDFD Products From: To: Total Number of Responses: 935 Total Number of Responses:

HWT Experimental Warning Program: History & Successes Darrel Kingfield (CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.

Riding the IFPS/GFE into the Future of Forecasting Lynn Maximuk MIC WFO Pleasant Hill, MO.

1 NWS Digital Services American Meteorological Society Annual Partners Meeting San Diego, CA January 13, 2005 LeRoy Spayd National Weather Service Office.

GFE in RFCs Tom LeFebvre ESRL/Global Systems Division.

Findings and Recommendations from the Hydrologic Verification System Requirements Team Peter Gabrielsen, Julie Demargne, Mary Mullusky, Kevin Werner, Bill.

Chapter 2 Build Your First Project A Step-by-Step Approach 2 Exploring Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 Copyright © 1999 Prentice-Hall, Inc. By Carlotta Eaton.

Satellite Altimetry use in Marine Forecasting at NOAA Joe Sienkiewicz NOAA / National Weather Service weather.gov Ocean Prediction Center

The Spotlight is on Type Wells. 2 WHAT IS IT? Users can analyze analogous well production, create a type profile for modelling new drills, and create.

IBM Software Group ® Process workflows for the application portfolio management workspace.

Lesson 1 Notes.  A chart is a representation of worksheet data. A chart can enhance and simplify the of numerical data in a worksheet because the between.

A new way of looking at things, doing things…and some new things.

Satellite data monitoring

Working with Charts © 2016 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

MANAGEMENT OF DASHBOARD MODELS

Update on the Status of Numerical Weather Prediction

Microsoft Office Access 2003

Microsoft Office Access 2003

Overview of WMO Strategic Planning Initiative

Aiding Severe Weather Forecasting

Presentation transcript:

Tom LeFebvre GSD/ESRL 20 November 2013

What is FDSE? The NWS Weather Ready Nation Roadmap outlines concepts for the future of forecasting in the NWS Initially labeled Forecaster Decision Support Environment (FDSE), it has been renamed to: Environmental Intelligence Management Capability Among the major concepts, FDSE is to enhance… Situational Awareness Forecast Confidence Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS)

Task Development GSD proposed a number of tasks to SSDs and three were selected Forecast Grid Monitor Short-term Forecast Update Tool Enhanced Ensemble Capabilities for AWIPS II

Forecast Grid Monitor Purpose: Situational Awareness Allow forecasters to better understand the state of the forecast as compared to Observations Numerical Guidance Forecasts Consensus Forecasts

Forecast Grid Monitor A framework that compares combinations of GFE forecast grids: Gridded Analyses of Observations: RTMA MSAS “Obs” grids Gridded Forecasts: Official, “Fcst” Downscaled Numerical Guidance Forecasts Consensus forecasts

Forecast Grid Monitor How it works Reads GFE grids (observational and forecast) Performs some operation to compare grids for the same valid time Displays the results of that algorithm

Grid Monitor GUI

Menu Options – Add / Remove weather elements Past / Future Guidance – Sets data sets to compare Weather Element Labels – Identifies weather element Time Scale – Time in hours from now Grid Comparison Visualizations – Graphical representation of the algorithm results

Grid Comparisons Grid Comparisons are designed to be very flexible Existing algorithms can be modified New algorithms can be created Each algorithm has access to raw data: Two grids to compare The Edit Area over which to do the comparison The rectangle in which to draw/paint Algorithms can draw: Graphical Objects Text

Grid Comparisons Grid comparison algorithms can be customized for particular weather elements Users only need to add the algorithm and restart the Grid Monitor (no configuration required) Each element can use a different comparison algorithm Seeking ideas for new algorithms

Grid Monitor – Drilling Deeper Grid Monitor allows forecasters to also investigate comparison details Histogram – Plots overlaid to reveal bias Error Histogram – Histogram of error grid Scatterplot – X vs. Y plot (e.g., Fcst vs. Obs) where Difference Grid – Displays in GFE to show where differences are greatest

Grid Monitor - Histogram

Grid Monitor – Error Histogram

Grid Monitor - Scatterplot

Grid Monitor – Difference Grid

Grid Monitor - Future Work Currently gathering feedback from some field offices: Allow for display of single weather element from many sources to view model performance Display models vertically instead of weather elements Allow grid comparisons to calculate areas of predicted watch, warning, and advisory criteria Plot some text summary of grid comparison

Grid Monitor Thanks for listening! Questions? Comments? Discussion?