Flexibility Mechanisms A Consideration of Flexibility Mechanisms for Inclusion in the Gothenburg Protocol Chris Dore

WHAT? New sources or EF revisions that have a significant impact would be assessed, and “corrected” for. OPTIONS Frozen MethodologyPublished Guidance On Application IMPLEMENTATION May require a “Guidance Committee” or detailed review. REPORTING & FORECASTING May require substantial increases to reporting, and even the generation of two inventory versions (best science & compliance). Forecasting may become uncertain. Mitigating Circumstances

WHAT? A fixed ceiling is accompanied by a flexibility range (like an uncertainty), which can be revised according to new information. OPTIONS IMPLEMENTATION Easy! REPORTING & FORECASTING Only requires minor additions to the IIR. However, forecasting compliance relies on timely revision of the flexibility range. Split Ambition Targets

WHAT? Percentage reductions are used instead of fixed ceilings. OPTIONS Percentage ReductionsKyoto Methodology IMPLEMENTATION Straightforward REPORTING & FORECASTING Accurate reporting of the base year becomes important. Percentage Reductions

WHAT? Within a country, swap emissions between pollutants using pre- defined exchange rates. OPTIONS International or Country Specific Exchange Rates IMPLEMENTATION Not too complicated once exchange rates established REPORTING & FORECASTING Best science inventory with rather separate compliance calculations. Domestic Pollutant Swapping

WHAT? Emissions trading by another name. OPTIONS Like-for-like pollutants or also include exchange rates IMPLEMENTATION Requires international management and infrastructure REPORTING & FORECASTING Best science inventory with rather separate compliance calculations. International Offsetting

WHAT? Allows a 3 year average to be reported, rather than a single year. OPTIONS n-1, n, n+1, or n-2, n-1, n ? IMPLEMENTATION Easy! REPORTING & FORECASTING Fairly straightforward, but might delay compliance assessment by a year. 3-Year Average

WHAT? Compliance at a later date, but with a tougher target. OPTIONS 3 or 5 year delay IMPLEMENTATION Relatively easy REPORTING & FORECASTING Potentially delays compliance for some countries. Exact rules could be established at the outset, so transparent for forecasting. Delayed Compliance

Domestic Pollutant Swapping International Offsetting Percentage Reductions Kyoto Methodology 3 Year Average Delayed Compliance Mitigating Circumstances by Guidance Mitigating Circumstances on Application Frozen Methodology Split Ambition Targets