Automated Flash Flood Forecasting Systems ¿Fact or Fantasy? International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting San Jose, Costa Rica, 13-17 March 2006 Session.

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Presentation transcript:

Automated Flash Flood Forecasting Systems ¿Fact or Fantasy? International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting San Jose, Costa Rica, March 2006 Session 2: Emerging Technologies

Urban Drainage and Flood Control District

Motivation

Early Prediction & Notification  Meteorological Support (27 years)  National Weather Service  Urban Drainage and Flood Control District (Private Meteorologist)  Local Flood Warning Program  early notification, forecasting, detection and warning capabilities (Basin-Specific Flood Warning Plans)  EOC Activation  communications, weather/flood monitoring, early mobilization, coordination

Our Major Dilemma—Time

ALERT Systems Automated Local Evaluation in Real-Time

ALERT weather station ALERT Rain Gage ALERT stream gage co-located with USGS river gaging station ALERT rain/stream gage Automated Flood Detection

Typical ALERT Site

Public and Emergency Services Webservers

ALERT Mesonet—before the storm

Real-Time Rainfall & Stream Levels

Emerging Technologies  Internet-driven paging & alarming (push & pull)  GIS integration using XML & SVG (the new Internet language) Multiple data source integration Multiple data source integration Real-time flood inundation mapping Real-time flood inundation mapping Build your own custom displays Build your own custom displays Data processing & analysis by others Data processing & analysis by others  Decision support for emergency managers

Rainfall Rate Alarms Automatically disseminated via and text messaging

Automated Alarm Notifications cell phones/computers/pagers/PDAs

Data Integration One-Stop Shopping

Rainfall Data Integration ALERT Rain Gage NetworkALERT & CoCoRaHS

¿Automated Forecasting? You be the judge…

Synchronized Integration Animated Display  TITAN model from NCAR  NWS Radar  ALERT Rainfall Real-time synchronization of surface rainfall measurements, radar imagery and storm track forecasting model output

Emerging GIS Capabilities

Integrated Flood Threat Recognition

Real-Time Hydrologic Models

Aviso Watch Yellow Alert Aviso Watch Yellow. Observed water levels. Boulder Creek at Boulder Falls (ALERT 4393). 9:39:36 AM MST Monday, April 18, 2005

Aviso Watch – 3000cfs Inundation

Aviso Watch Red Alert Aviso Watch Red. Forecast Basin-avg precip. Fourmile Creek at Long Gulch (Sub12). 09:54:57 AM MST Monday, April 18, 2005

Aviso Watch – 12,000cfs Inundation

Depth Inundation Zones

And sometimes we just miss the peak.

Thank you Kevin Stewart, Manager Information Services and Flood Warning Program Urban Drainage and Flood Control District Denver, Colorado & Chairman, National Hydrologic Warning Council

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