Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities.

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Presentation transcript:

Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential

Mt Nelson and surrounds

Risk = consequences x likelihood Mt Nelson Mt WellingtonHobart

Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential

Consequences Mt Nelson

Risk of Bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential Flora Fauna Geo-morphic Water catchment Ramsar sites

Natural Values Mt Nelson

Risk of Bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential Production Forest Research Monitoring Agriculture Production

Forest and Agriculture Values Mt Nelson

Risk of Bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential PWS-IMS Neighbour Wildland Urban Interface (high life risk (schools, hospitals), multi-occupancy, business, single occupancy) Infrastructure (critical (eg. high tension powerlines), burnable / replaceable) Heritage Buildings Non-burnable

Constructed values Mt Nelson

Risk of Bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential

Likelihood Mt Nelson

Risk of Bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential Historical Fire Records Lightening Probability Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) observations

Ignition Potential Mt Nelson

Risk of Bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential Detection capabilities (Fire towers, spotter flights, commercial routes) Ground Attack Coverage (Parks and Wildlife Services bases, Tasmanian Fire Service Brigade bases) Rotary Wing attack coverage (water buckets)

Suppression Capacity Mt Nelson

Detection Mt Nelson

Risk of Bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential Head Fire Intensity (90 Weather percentile - extreme weather events, fuel group, rate of spread.) Fuel Flammability grid (13 veg types) Slope factor grid

Fire Behaviour Mt Nelson

Flammability of vegetation Dry Sclerophyll Bushland Alpine Heath Wet rainforest