Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Montréal, Canada, May 26-28, 2004 Gilles Verner Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre 17 th NOAM-Europe Data Exchange Meeting

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Outline Current status: –Canadian Forecast System –Telecoms and Computers –NWP System at CMC –MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR Changes to NWP System since last meeting –Results from AMSU-B / GOES radiances –Results from 15-km regional GEM –Results from new OSE’s Future Plans and Requirements for Data Part II presented by Godelieve Deblonde

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Meteorological Service of Canada Michel Béland Director general ATMOSPHERIC & CLIMATE SCIENCE Marc Denis Everell Asst. Dep. Minister Mike Minuk A/Director general ATMOSPHERIC MONITORING & WATER SURVEY Pierre Dubreuil Director general ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT PREDICTION Jim Abraham A/Director general SCIENCE, CLIENTS & PARTNERS James Meddings Director general POLICY & CORPORATE AFFAIRS CMC RPN ARMA CIS

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Canadian Forecast System

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien MSC Forecast Offices and Satellite Reception Facilities Each MSC Office has a GOES Direct Readout Station. CMC has 3 GOES Readout Stations. MSC operates 3 HRPT Stations: Halifax, Gander and Edmonton. Data from a non-MSC Northern station is also available (Resolute). CMC has DOMSAT system for AVHRR- GAC (TeraScan)

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien MSC Forecast Offices and Satellite Reception Facilities Each MSC Office has a GOES Direct Readout Station. CMC has 3 GOES Readout Stations. MSC operates 3 HRPT Stations: Halifax, Gander and Edmonton. Data from a non-MSC Northern station is also available (Resolute). CMC has DOMSAT system for AVHRR- GAC (TeraScan) X X X X X X X X

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMC Computer Center Configuration

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Telecommunications GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003 Upgrade was done for exchange of NWP model output (for EPS) and Canadian Radar data Former NAIL link between Ice Centres (CIS - NIC) removed Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GMS - GOES) Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS Internal MSC links upgraded (radar, hrpt, NWP) Internet still used for access to Nesdis data; CMC internet access upgraded during 2003 (100 mbps and 2 independent ISP) Funding for high speed link (T1+) with Nesdis approved

OPERATIONAL RUNS: MAIN COMPONENTS GEM model Global (100km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15km) : 0-48 hours HIMAP (10km) : 0-24 hours air quality (CHRONOS) Environmental Emergency Transport model (CANERM) Trajectory model monthly and seasonal forecasts global assimilation cycle 3D Var Analysis (data collection and assimilation) Models, 6-hour forecast (trial field) Wave model (WAM) regional data assimilation ensemble forecasts (16 members) surface analysis

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMC Data Assimilation Cycles

CMC Operational Models Global ModelRegional Model Uniform grid Resolution of.9º (~100 km) 28 eta levels Kuo convection scheme Sundqvist stratiform scheme Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture 10 day forecasts at 00Z and 6 day forecasts at 12Z. Cut-off of T+3h00 Variable resolution grid Resolution of.1375º (~15 km) 58 eta levels Kain-Fritsch scheme Sundqvist stratiform scheme ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data) 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z) Cut-off of T+1h35 3D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108) Background errors from method Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR GEM model (global, regional, meso)

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien 575 X 641 grid ( 66% in 15-km uniform area ) Regional model

CMC Operational Models (cont.) Mesoscale model Global ensemble GEM variable grid (HiMAP) Resolution of.09º (~10 km) L35 Kain-Fritsch convection scheme Sundqvist condensation scheme ISBA surface module No assimilation cycle (started from 6hr regional) 30 hour forecasts at 06/18Z Perturbed analyses from perturbed assimilation cycles Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º for GEM and T149 for SEF) 16 members Multi model approach with different physics options 10 day forecasts at 00Z

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Data Processing14 Meso-scale model (E)

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Observations for 3D-Var analyses TYPE FORMAT / INSTRUMENT PLATFORMVARIABLES Upper-air soundings radiosonde pilot dropsonde (profiler) land stations ships aircraft (dropsonde) temperature moisture winds sfc pressure Surface observations synoptic land stations ships fixed buoys drifting buoys temperature moisture sfc pressure winds (marine) Satellite NOAA ATOVS amsu-a & amsu-b circumpolar (NOAA series) (Aqua, amsu-a) radiance GOES imager geostationary (GOES-W) (GOES-E) radiance AMVs ( IR, WV, VI channels) geostationary (GOES-E/W/P, METEOSAT-5/7) (circumpolar, Terra & Aqua) derived winds Aircrafts BUFR / AMDAR AIREP / ADS Aircrafts (single level & profiles) temperature winds

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Surface analyses

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Surface analyses (cont.)

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMC Continuous Ice Cover Analysis Global 1080 x 540 grid, once a day at 00 GMT SSM/I Ice retrievals using AES/YORK algorithm(Ramseier and Rubinstein, 1992) Uses retrievals from F13, F14 and F15. Roughly 300,000 data points per satellite Method is simple data averaging, with return to climatology, analysis made continuous over land Also make use of CIS ice data, including 136 Canadian lakes Need for ice thickness data, and data for more lakes

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Example of Ice Analysis (17 March 2004, 00UTC)

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Future of MSC Observation Networks Upper Air Network (Soundings + AMDAR)  to  Radar Network  now  Lightning Network  Surface Network  Public  Aviation  Marine  Climate

Network now completed!

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Canadian AMDAR Programme  Business Case and Workshop March-April 2000  Canadian AMDAR Program Implementation Team: –TORs (EC, NC, airlines, WMO, NOAA, Sypher) –Canadian AMDAR s/w’s Specifications - enhanced ARINC –Data Ownership and Process & Communication Studies –AMDAR Data Control System’s Specifications (ongoing)  Completion of DASH-8’s AMDAR s/w by UASC (Unilink) Lobbying airlines to join, including major PR actions  Air Canada Jazz began reporting July 2002:  21 Air Nova DASH-8s and 10 CRJs presently reporting data –probable fleet expansion to Air BC and Air Ontario ( ), JAZZ now planning ~65 CRJ and 60 DASH-8 by March 2006 èreception and processing of data by CMC; C-ADAS software Partnering with First Air for an alternative AMDAR system

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Canadian AMDAR coverage

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Canadian AMDAR coverage - soundings

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Monitoring of Canadian AMDAR - DASH-8 Temp. August 02

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Monitoring of Canadian AMDAR - DASH-8 Wind August 02

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Monitoring of Canadian AMDAR - CRJ Wind/TT

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Canadian AMDAR - Status Current sensor on DASH-8 is flush mounted on wing, next to hydraulic lines (non standard) AC Jazz Temp probes to be replaced (2 probes) on forward part of fuselage, should fix the Temp bias problem: target is end of 2004 Monitoring by CMC helped JAZZ to explain a long standing issue related to their FMS generating unneeded steering commands in light wind situations First Air: have selected the NASA TAMDAR system for provision of data, test flight with TAMDAR to occur this Summer If evaluation of TAMDAR is conclusive, 8 First Air aircraft to start reporting in early to mid All (good) data to be on GTS: IUAA01 CWAO and IUAB01 CWAO, beginning soon with data from CRJ.

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien First Air Route (

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Other Canadian observations Canadian AMDAR on GTS soon, using BUFR code “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by . Canadian radar data - will be available centrally at CMC, once NRP (National Radar Processor) becomes operational, in about 1 year Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…eventually in BUFR Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available and redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Major conversion to IBM machine during 2003 – completed by January 04 New satellite data, implemented June 19, 2003: AMSUB + GOES 4 AMSU-B channels (ch 2-5) GOES 6.7 micron channel (tested GOES 8/10 but 8 replaced by 12, culd implement GOES-10 only) last level of moisture analyses raised from 300 to 70 hPa impacts mostly on moisture fields and precipitation implementation in global system only, due to IBM conversion note: loss of NOAA-17 AMSUA data on October 28, 2003

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Average 250 mb (T-Td) analysis increments for the 22 Dec 01 to 31 Jan 02 assimilation period GOES - CONTROL AMSUB - CONTROL AMSUB and GOES have similar average (quite large!!) corrections at 250 mb for T-Td

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien ATOVS available for Reg ATOVS available for Glob ATOVS available for Reg ATOVS available for Glob GOES available for Reg

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien AMSU-B+GOES OPE Results: 48h forecast verification over S. Hemisphere Aug-Sep 2002

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Verification of hr precipitation NOAM Dec 02-Jan 03

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Verification of hr precipitation NOAM Dec 02-Jan 03

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Cross Validation with SSM/I - IWV

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Cross Validation with SSM/I

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Operational WMO Verification 3D-Var GEM 3D-Var  levels TOVS 1d TOVS 1b 3D-Var T,ps AMSU-B GOES rad

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting New GEM regional model evaluated in parallel during last 3 months MPI code 15 km, 58 levels (575 x 641 grid) Minimum resolution of 350 km Sundqvist condensation scheme Kain-Fritsch convection scheme Moist TKE (Turbulence en air saturé) Ktrans Shallow convection Very good results for mass/wind and PCPN 8x more cpu than previous regional model (24km, 28 levels) Incorporates AMSUB and GOES radiance data (as in global) Implemented May 18, 2004

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Results from PAR run: Oper 24- km vs new 15-km GEM; NOAM mid-feb to mid-apr 04 GZ500UV250

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Results from PAR run: Oper 24- km vs new 15-km GEM; NOAM mid-feb to mid-apr 04

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Results from PAR run: Oper 24- km vs new 15-km GEM; NOAM mid-feb to mid-apr 04

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Implementations planned Assimilation: new datasets –AMSUA (AQUA), GOES-12, Profilers, MODIS winds Spring 2004 –Stratos AMSU-A channels + AMSU-B (raised model top) –IR channels (GOES 10-12; METEOSAT, MTSAT and AIRS) –IWV from SSM/I and SSM/IS (eventually from sfc-GPS) –Sfc winds (QuikScat, SSM/IS) Global 4D-Var Fall 2004 Improved GEM Global model Mid 2005 EnKF (using 3D/4D operators) for EPS and flow dependent statistics Mid 2004

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Difference in RMS of 24-hours Forecast errors, verified against Control analyses done with all the observations: No Polar Winds – Polar Winds exp., 500 hPa wind vector (m/s), Impact of MODIS Polar Winds

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Impact of all Atmospheric Motion Vectors Difference in RMS of 24-hours Forecast errors, verified against Control analyses done with all the observations: No AMVs – Control, 500 hPa wind vector (m/s),

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Impact of Satellite radiance Difference in RMS of 24-hours Forecast errors, verified against Control analyses done with all the observations: No Rad – Control, 500 hPa wind vector (m/s),

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Impact of all Satellite observations Difference in RMS of 24-hours Forecast errors, verified against Control analyses done with all the observations: No Sat – Control, 500 hPa wind vector (m/s),

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Anomaly correlation, GZ 500 hPa Northern Hemisphere: Control, No SAT and NOUA Winter 02 exp Winter 03 exp 17 dec 01 – 27 jan 02 | 8 nov – 31 dec 03 OSE without AMSUB/GOES OSE with AMSUB/GOES/MODIS New OSE’s

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Anomaly correlation, GZ 500 hPa Southern Hemisphere: Control, No SAT and NOUA 17 dec 01 – 27 jan 02 | 8 nov – 31 dec 03 OSE without AMSUB/GOES OSE with AMSUB/GOES/MODIS Winter 02 exp Winter 03 exp

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Anomaly correlation, GZ 500 hPa North America: Control, No SAT and NOUA 17 dec 01 – 27 jan 02 | 8 nov – 31 dec 03 OSE without AMSUB/GOES OSE with AMSUB/GOES/MODIS Winter 02 exp Winter 03 exp

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Global 4D-Var assimilation cycle 6h window with 45 min time step. 4D data thinning. Spatial data selection is done for each 45 min time bin. Incremental analysis performed at T108. GEM tangent-linear and adjoint models on 240 x 120 grid. 2 outer loops:  40 inner loops : adiabatic physics (vertical diffusion)  30 inner loops : improved physics (SGO, large scale condensation, convection)

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Recent 4D Results: 20 Jun – 28 Aug 03 4D-Var OPS-3D

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Improved Global GEM Numerics / Dynamics 800 x 600 x L58 (i.e., 33 km at 49 o ) Timestep of 15 min Numerical poles at geographical poles  6 horizontal diffusion on momentum variables Modified sponge layer at model top Filtered orography from USGS Physics Constant thermodynamic roughness over water surfaces No vertical smoothing on net radiational fluxes Bougeault-Lacarrere mixing length for the vertical diffusion MoisTKE for boundary-layer clouds Shallow convection with Kuo Transient Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch Grid-scale condensation with a modified Sundqvist scheme (consun)

Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Priorities for Satellite Data ATOVS: Improved access to Level 1B data (new link with Nesdis), Canadian HRPT data (processing with AAPP) for regional model (cut-off of T+90 min.) and EARS SSM/IS QuikScat and Envisat (AATSR), both now received, tests underway MODIS Products (Winds, SST, LAI, Cloud), winds now tested. A more “operational like” status of NOAA wind product would be very useful. METEOSAT and GOES-9 Imagery (MTSAT) (CSR product) High Density AMV for GOES9/MTSAT, GOES 9 soon in parallel AIRS (assimilation now being tested) METOP (IASI,…)