UK HOUSING MARKET: Do the green shoots have roots? Martin Gahbauer Chief Economist Nationwide Building Society.

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Presentation transcript:

UK HOUSING MARKET: Do the green shoots have roots? Martin Gahbauer Chief Economist Nationwide Building Society

Outline  The big picture  Current market trends  What is the true affordability picture?  Longer term market considerations

The big picture – 4 possible scenarios What sort of recovery? Gradual recovery V ShapeL shape W shape double dip

The big picture – recent trends

The big picture – Labour market

Recent housing market trends - Activity

Recent market trends - Prices

Recent trends – Supply/demand balance

Recent trends – Restricted supply

Recent trends – House building

Recent trends – Restricted supply

What is the true affordability picture?

Longer term considerations – Public debt

Longer term considerations – Exit from QE

Longer term considerations – Supply

Conclusions  Macro picture looking better but don’t assume we are out of the woods  Housing market transactions have bottomed at very low level  Housing only affordable if you assume interest rates will remain low forever and everyone has the required deposit  Deterioration of public finances could put upward pressure on mortgage rates in the long term  Housing construction not keeping pace with household growth

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