Value-Focused Thinking Dr. Greg Parnell Virginia Commonwealth University

Overview Structure of Decisions Value-Focused Thinking Definition Benefits Obstacles Requirements Summary

Structure of Decisions Values What do we want? Information What do we know? Alternatives What can we do? Key Idea: Use our strategic values to create decision opportunities

Alternative Focused Thinking Evaluate Initial Alternatives

Change Thinking Alternative-Focused Thinking Value-Focused Thinking Values New & Initial Alternatives Evaluate Initial Alternatives If you want better decisions, find better alternatives! Evaluate (Values)

Benefits of Value Focused Thinking creating alternatives identifying decision opportunities uncovering hidden objectives evaluating alternatives guiding strategic thinking Thinking About Values improving communication inter- connecting decisions facilitating involvement guiding information collection Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decisionmaking, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.

VFT: Guiding Strategic Thinking Objective Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making Strategic objectives are stable over time Means to obtain these objectives vary over time

SPACECAST 2020 Value Model Missions from JCS PUB 3-14

Greg Parnell's Professional Values Be an internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research) Publish important research & be in demand as consultant Be an excellent teacher & mentor Perform significant professional service

VFT: Facilitates Involvement in Multiple-Stakeholder Decisions Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Strategic Objective Rewrote last bullet. Focuses stakeholder interaction on values Discussions more productive Key issues become explicit Postpones discussion of alternatives

VFT: Uncovering Hidden Objectives Strategic Objective Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 4 Some objectives require considerable thought to uncover Some stakeholders have incentives not to identify objectives

VFT: Improving Communications Facilitates communications and understanding between all stakeholders Avoids technical language of many specialties

VFT: Decision Opportunities Assess how we will attain future strategic objectives Objectives not being attained Objectives that are or will be degrading Focus our creativity to identify opportunities to create value

Greg Parnell's Professional Values Be a internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research) Be an excellent teacher Publish important research Perform significant & mentor & be in demand as consultant professional service Develop world class Maintain & build friendships Work on challenging University decision & risk analysis courses Community problems Nationally/Internationally Perform university Service Develop outstanding Build strong research Math Sciences Dept H & S School operations research courses program VCU Did you want to leave “Teach …..students” in white to emphasize or talk about it? Yes. This is why I decided to teach an honors course in DA. I had no courses planned to focus on undergraduates. Honors students are the best students. Teach undergraduate Develop research agenda & thesis research topics Support INFORMS/MORS courses that attract Professional Objectives operations research students Local/National Attract excellent Enhance Math Sciences (OR) Provide sound academic undergraduate & & professional advice MS thesis students graduate programs Be a member of PhD committees Increase program awareness - Locally Nationally/Internationally Obtain funding for summer & students Build network to help graduates get jobs Get research & consulting work published

VFT: Evaluating Alternatives Objective 1 Measure of Merit A Subobjective A Measure of Merit B Subobjective B Measure of Merit C Subobjective C Objective 2 Objective 3 Strategic Objective 50% 30% 20% 40% Changed tasks to subobjectives. Develop value model to evaluate alternatives Identify subobjectives required to achieve objectives Identify measures of merit that quantify the value of achieving subobjectives Assign weight to the subobjectives and objectives

SPACECAST 2020 Value Model Weighted Score = Improvement Score X Force Quality Weight X Task Weight X Mission Weight OBJECTIVE 0.19 0.37 0.22 0.22 MISSION Deleted “Line” in “Line Score”. TASK 0.20 0.25 0.22 0.07 0.08 0.18 FORCE QUALITY 0.35 0.35 0.20 0.10 MEASURE OF MERIT CURRENT CAPABILITY (0.0) IMPROVEMENT: MINOR (0.1) SIGNIFICANT (0.5) ORDER OF MAGNITUDE (0.9)

VFT: Guiding Information Collection Objective 1 Measure of Merit A Subobjective A Measure of Merit B Subobjective B Measure of Merit C Subobjective C Objective 2 Objective 3 Strategic Objective 50% 30% 20% 40% Changed tasks to subobjectives Value model indicates the important information Collect information to Create better alternatives Credibly evaluate alternatives

VFT: Creating Alternatives Strategic Objective 20% 30% 50% I guess you want the third objective empty to talk about focusing creativity to find some alt’s that are good at Objective 3? The other alternatives are lined up under the objectives they score or do well in? Exactly! Many times the beginning alternative set does NOT have any alternatives to focus on the most important objectives! That is because the alternatives are developed before the objectives! Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Alternative A Alternative B Alternative B Alternative C Advocates will propose several alternatives Focus creativity to generate alternatives that create value

VFT: Interconnecting Decisions Strategic Objective 20% 30% 50% Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 30% 40% 30% Task A Task B Task C Measure of Merit A Measure of Merit B Measure of Merit C Value model assessments of alternatives Objective Traceable Robust

SPACECAST 2020 Operational Analysis Summary (Sensitivity to Weights) 5 TAV High Energy Laser (HEL) 4 3 Global Surveillance, Recon, & Targeting System (GSRT) High Power Microwave Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV) Kinetic Energy Weapons (KEW) 2 Particle Beam Super GPS Weather Forecasting System Space Traffic Control (SPATRACS) Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle Space Modular Systems Asteroid Detection Weather Control 1 Space Solar Monitoring Ionospheric Forecasting Solar Mirror TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE

Obstacles to Value-Focused Thinking Added lamppost? Alternative Focused Thinking “Drunk looking for car keys under the lamp post” Worrying too much about the “weights” Lack of an environment that encourages creativity

Requirements for Value-Focused Thinking Study leadership support Support from study team Experienced analysis team

Summary Value-Focused Thinking helps us use Value Model Has a Central Role Strategic Objective Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Subobjective A Subobjective B Subobjective C Measure of Merit C Measure of Merit A Measure of Merit B Value-Focused Thinking helps us use our strategic objectives to create value