Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and modelling data Victor Shatalov and Oleg Travnikov, MSC-E

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Approach to the trend analysis Measurements of B[a]P air concentrations at CZ3 Decomposition of time series: (modelling and measurement results) Main trend parameter: total reduction Trend (deleting “random” component) Main component (deleting seasonal component) Time series

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Monitoring: data for trend analysis Long-term data on POPs in air and precipitation at EMEP sites (PCBs, HCB and PAHs) Site (code) Zeppelin (NO42) Birkenes (NO02/99) Pallas (FI36) Storhofdi (IS91) Aspvreten (SE12) Råö/Rörvik (SE02/14) Kosetice (CZ03) Westerland (DE01) Zingst (DE09) Region covered by long-term measurement data No data on PCDD/Fs under EMEP

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Air concentrations of PCBs: declining trends at almost all sites Monitoring (CCC) Air concentrations of B[a]P: no clear time-trend at any station B[a]P in precipitation: small declining trends at few sites HCB, air: decreasing trend at NO42 in 1990s and increasing trend during the last decade

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Total reduction of PCB-153 calculated by trend analysis of measurement and modelling data Comparison of observed and modelled air concentrations at particular locations Better agreement in second part of the period Combined measurement/modelling trend analysis (PCBs)

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Modelling data Long-term trends: EMEP domain (B[a]P) Statistically significant increase at 95% confidence level from 2005 to 2012 (7%)

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Example: Germany Air concentrations (modelling) Emissions (official data) Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P) Trend analysis of measurements at German sites DE ng/l Total reduction 56% Growth from 2005 to % DE ng/l Total reduction 57% Growth from 2005 to % Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Value Trend Total reduction 68% Growth from 2005 to %

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Countries with statistically significant increase of B[a]P air concentrations from 2005 to 2012 Increase of emissions ( ) Croatia38% Germany37% Spain32% Finland29% Portugal28% Hungary25% Estonia19% Bulgaria18% Poland14% Italy11% Lithuania10% Slovenia 6% United Kingdom 5% Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P)

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Total reduction of POP air concentrations in the EMEP domain from 1990 to 2012 Modelling data Monitoring data Long-term trends: EMEP domain 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% B[a]PPCDD/FsPCB-153HCB B[a]P - no clear trend PCDD/Fs - EMEP: no data; National: decline PCBs - declining trends HCB - increasing trend during the last decade (NO42, AMAP, IADN)

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, sites 45 sites Long-term measurements of heavy metals ( ) Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP 8 sites 16 sites Pb in precipitation Pb in air

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Selected sites Pb, Cd Hg - in air - in precip. - co-located Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Measured and modelled Pb air concentration Zingst (DE9), Germany Historical trends of heavy metal pollution Joint analysis of measurements and modelling ( ) Measurements Modelling

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Wet dep. Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc. Lead Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc.Wet dep. Mercury Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc.Wet dep. Cadmium Trends: Joint analysis at monitoring sites Total reduction of heavy metal levels ( ) - Measurements - Modelling Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Schmücke (DE 8), Germany Cd air concentration Wet deposition, g/km 2 /y De Zilk (NL91), Netherlands Hg wet deposition

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Pb wet deposition (2012) Mean deposition, g/m 2 /month Mercury Mean deposition, g/m 2 /month Cadmium Mean deposition, kg/m 2 /month Lead Trends: Changes in the whole EMEP domain Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition ( ) Total reduction: 23% Total reduction: 53% Total reduction: 78% PbCdHg Monitoring sites Total reduction (%) EMEP domain785323

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Trends: Changes in individual countries Mean deposition, g/km 2 /month France Mean deposition, g/km 2 /month Armenia Country mean deposition of Cd ( ) PbCdHg Total redcution, % EU28 EECCA Reduction of heavy metal deposition ( )

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Summary Pollution levels of Pb, Cd and Hg in the EMEP region reduced by 80%, 55% and 25% during Substantial decrease for the same period was estimated for PCBs and HCB (80-90%), PCDDF (50%), whereas for PAHs it was insignificant (below 30%) Maximum reduction of HMs and POPs pollution took place in early 1990-s, in the second half of the period the reduction slowed or even changed to growth (PAHs and HCB) Decline of HM and POP levels in EECCA countries is generally smaller than that in EU Main factors controlling long-term changes of HM and POP pollution are anthropogenic and secondary emissions and intercontinental transport of long-living species (Hg, HCB, PCBs, PCDDFs) Information on long-term trends of HMs and POPs have been prepared for the CLRTAP Assessment 2016 and discussed at TFMM (Krakow, May 2015) and Expert Group meeting (Moscow, August 2015)