Electoral systems and party systems: Some conclusions

Political Science Seminar Series Enforcing NAFO Regulations: A European Union Perspective Michele Del Zompo Senior Coordinator of Control Operations with the (EU) Community Fisheries Control Agency 3:00 pm Friday, November 16th AA1045

Research papers: PRELIMINARY OUTLINE Due Friday, November 16 th This should lay out the argument of the paper in point form PAPERS DUE THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29 TH

Electoral systems and party systems: Do electoral systems either determine the number of parties (stronger version) OR influence the number of parties (more muted, weaker version) If so, in what way?

Duverger’s law In its simplest form: Single member plurality (SMP) > two party system PR > multiparty system But is it valid?

Possible solutions: Consider the argument: –Is it logically consistent? –Does it take into account the likely behaviour of parties and/or voters? Consider historical sequences: –which came first? Look at the data – look for correlations And….

Other factors Consider whether there are other factors which explain the number of parties Cleavage structure District magnitude Formal legal or effective thresholds

Some evidence There is a relationship between electoral laws and the number of political parties: Countries using plurality systems (SNP) have fewer parties Countries using majority systems (double ballot/runoff) have more Countries using PR have more still more

Some data using Laakso and Taagepura’s index, the effective number of parties Effective number of parties – a weighted measure, according greater importance to larger parties ENEP = effective number of electoral parties (parties competing in elections) ENPP = effective number of parliamentary parties (parties winning seats in the legislature)

Electoral systems and the effective number of parliamentary parties Effective (weighted) number of parties plurality2.0 majority2.8 PR3.6

Some qualifications SNP can lead to multiparty competition: Canada as a case in point PR will not necessarily lead to an extensive number of parties, e.g. –Austria –Spain –Greece And…

Changing the electoral law doesn’t always work:

Germany 5% threshold does reduce the number of parties FRG goes from 11 to 7 to 3 parties in parliament (1950s) 4 parties in parliament from since them

Italy: how to get it wrong Through 1992: PR in large districts > extended multipartyism Change to single member plurality for ¾ of the districts and PR for the remaining ¼ > More parties & clustered multipartyism: competition between two blocs ___________________________________ Ulive (9 parties) Casa del Liberta (3 parties)