A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Update on the Kentucky Economy Dr. James R. Ramsey April 29, 2011 1.

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Presentation transcript:

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Update on the Kentucky Economy Dr. James R. Ramsey April 29,

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Honored to serve as a Trustee of the Churchill Tax-Free Fund of Kentucky since its inception in

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Last year when we met, we said 2009 was another crummy economic year… 2010 was better… not great, but better 3

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Economy Picks Up Steam Output Returns to ‘07 Levels GDP 4 * Source – Chamber of Commerce

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® A successful rebellion in Tunisia A successful rebellion in Egypt An apparently unsuccessful civil war in Libya Armed uprising in Bahrain and Yemen One of the largest earthquakes on record in Japan One of the most devastating tsunamis ever to strike Japan A high level nuclear accident in Japan Impact on energy prices/stability and of course Weak housing markets A Flock of Black Swans (National concerns…) 5

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® In Kentucky, things were better in 2010 than

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Kentucky Non-Agriculture Employment (employment in thousands) 7 But still a ways to go… Adding jobs

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Loss of Manufacturing Jobs in KY Continues to be a Major Concern 8

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Kentucky Education & Health Services Employment 9

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® % of Kentucky Employees by Industry Industry %Manufacturing12.0% 11.8%Education & Health Services 14.2%

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Recessionary impact not as bad in Kentucky as some other states Seems as if we hit bottom and are coming back (albeit slowly) How long will it take to regain the 120,000 lost jobs during recession? –Where will new jobs come from? Healthcare Logistics Business Services Energy Impact on state budget – state services –Improving revenue growth –But structural imbalance Observation on Kentucky Economy April

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Medicaid Corrections Public employee benefits So we will face state budget problems for a while (at least another three years) Adding to the problem we have the “Leaky Bucket” 12

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Spending Priorities 13

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Modest recovery continues to take place in Kentucky We will continue to add jobs, but … Probably 2013 before we see as many jobs in Kentucky as we had in 2007, still… –We will Continue to face difficult public policy choices that impact our long term future Forecasting / Guessing The Future 14

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Since forecasting is a tough business. I am going to keep my day job at least one more year. Reminder 15

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