Regulation and the Rise of Housing Prices Bryce A. Ward Harvard University

Fact: Substantial Price Growth in Several Housing Markets OFHEO Repeat Sales Price Indices , CPI Adjusted Nassau-Suffolk (NY) 251 % Boston Quincy (MA) 210 % Cambridge-Newton (MA) 180% Essex County (MA) 179% Salinas (CA) 162%

Why Have Prices Increased? Higher Demand? –Demand growth matters, but high demand needn’t => Higher Prices –Prices increase when Supply doesn’t respond to growth in Demand Blue=Prices, Red=Permits

3 Reasons Supply Might Not Respond to Higher Prices Higher Construction Costs No More Land Regulations

Do Higher Construction Costs Explain Higher Prices?

Have High Price Areas Run Out of Land?

Is it Regulation? Regulations reduce new construction (acts as a tax, but a really bad tax) Several studies that compare communities with more stringent regulations to similar communities with less regulations find that more regulation => less new construction E.g., Glaeser and Ward (2006) examination of 187 communities in Boston Ares finds: –.25 acre increase in average minimum lot size => 9% fewer houses in 2000, 10% fewer permits between –Wetlands, Subdivision, and Septic Rules => 10-20% reduction in annual permits

Regulations Have Become More Common in Many Areas

Why Have Regulations Become More Common? Better Organized/More Powerful Homeowners More Incentives for Homeowners to Block Development (e.g., bigger negative effects of development or higher valuation of low density) More Sympathetic Judges Developers w/ Less Power

Conclusion Regulations Contribute to Housing Un- Affordability Regulations Differ a Great Deal Across Space => No Simple Solutions –Improve Incentives –Reduce Uncertainty –Better Internalize Externalities