Schools for Equity in Education Susan Brower, MN State Demographer April 2015

3 Big demographic trends that will impact school districts Growth patterns within MN have changed Aging Increasing diversity— ethnicity, language, religion, and other aspects

Exurban growth in the 2000s Source: PolicyMap, U.S. Census Bureau data

Source: CURA Reporter, Winter/Spring 2014 Population loss along western edge of state, down into Southwestern prairies has been long- standing U.S. Census Bureau data

Population growth rates have converged over the last decade Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. Note: Suburban=Anoka, Dakota, Washington, Exurban=Carver, Chisago, Isanti, Scott, Sherburne, Wright

How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade? Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

Budget pressures will change More 65+ than school-age by 2020 U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

Increasingly our demographics will change demand for services General Fund Expenditures FY Within Health & Human Services Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion) Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion) MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

Projected Growth in Labor Force Annual Average, Ages 16+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

Black, Latino and Asian populations growing rapidly Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

+ Our foreign-born population is becoming increasingly diverse Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

Source: Tabulated by MN Compass from Minnesota Department of Education data Large gaps in educational achievement and attainment exist across racial groups

Growing child poverty, esp. for children of color Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

Minnesota by race, 2012 Source: 2012 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau. School-age population

Largest Population Growth Among Asian, Black and Hispanic Groups Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

Minnesota’s projected net migration and natural change, Source: State Demographic Center projections, U.S. Census Bureau data used as base population for projections

mn.gov/demography