Science and Technology Infusion Plan For National Digital Forecast Database Science and Technology Infusion Plan For National Digital Forecast Database NWS S&T Committee September 18, 2002 Kevin Johnston

Outline  What is the NDFD?  How is NDFD Produced-New Forecast Paradigm  Why We Are Doing NDFD?  Current Development Status  Vision  Challenges  Next Steps

What is the NDFD?  A Database That:  Contains a Seamless Mosaic of Official NWS Digital Forecasts  Is Available to Users and Partners-Public and Private  Allows Users and Partners to Create Wide Range of Text, Graphic, and Image Products

User-Generated Products How is NDFD Produced? –Interactive –Collaborative –Information Oriented NWS Automated Products Text Graphic Digital Voice TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. National Digital Forecast Database Local Digital Forecast Database Field Offices National Centers Collaborate Data and Science Focus National Centers Model Guidance Grids

Why Are We Doing NDFD ?  Increase the Usefulness of Government Forecasts by Communicating Forecaster’s Mental Image of Weather Situation in Greater Detail –Custom Applications –Decision Support Systems –Along a Path –Text in Multiple Languages

NDFD Current Development Status  Ingesting 5 km 2-Dimensional Grids of Weather Elements From Field Offices and Creating Regional and National Mosaics  Available Every 3 Hours Out to 72 Hours and Every 12 Hours for Days 4-7; Updated Hourly  Performing Consistency Checks and Analysis  FTP Access Via Central Server  Internet Web Design Beginning

NDFD Vision A Seamless Database of Information  Observations  Analyses  Forecasts  Uncertainty Information  Outlooks, Watches, Warnings  Interrogation and Mining Tools Allow Users to Exploit Database for Any Application or Purpose

NDFD Vision (Continued) Probabilistic Forecast ElementsProbabilistic Forecast Elements Objects to Define Aviation Meteorological Features and AreasObjects to Define Aviation Meteorological Features and Areas Vertical Dimension ( 3D grids)Vertical Dimension ( 3D grids) Additional Weather Elements for Aviation, Marine, Climate, etcAdditional Weather Elements for Aviation, Marine, Climate, etc Dissemination (FTP Access, Interactive-Web Display)Dissemination (FTP Access, Interactive-Web Display) Higher Resolution in Time and SpaceHigher Resolution in Time and Space Higher Refresh RateHigher Refresh Rate

Challenges  Consistent, Accurate, and Timely Forecast Information in the Vertical Dimension  Immediate Accessibility by Users for Updates of Forecasts Information Technology is Transforming How We Do Business Operationally How Best to Evolve the Forecast Division of Labor to Insure Consistent, Accurate, and Timely Information?

NDFD Next Steps  Establish Strategic Planning Team to Develop Roadmap (Tasks and Milestones) to Meet Service Requirements and Vision  Roadmap Presented to Corporate Board for Approval  March 2003