The Influence of Mountain Pine Beetle Damage on the 1988 Yellowstone Fires Heather J. Lynch Paul R. Moorcroft

Remote sensing of fire & insect damage mountain pine beetle damage

covariates regression coefficients to be estimated Spatial Logistic Regression Model: What is the relationship between previous insect damage and the probability of burning in 1988? burn/no burn weather geographic factors insect damage latitude longitude

mean 95% confidence interval Palmer Drought Severity Index  A more negative PDSI is associated with more severe drought. Therefore, as we might expect, more severe drought is associated with a higher probability of burning.  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) Results after model selection, 3 variables remained (=autocorr)

mean 95% confidence interval Results (cont.)  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) northeast- facing aspect  northeast facing slopes are more likely to burn than southwest facing slopes.

mean 95% confidence interval Results (cont.)  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) repeated mountain pine beetle damage  Repeated mountain pine beetle damage of any intensity during is associated with an increased risk of burning in the 1988 fires.

mean 95% confidence interval Results (cont.)  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) autocorrelation coefficient  The coefficient associated with the strength of auto-correlation is most dominant.

non-spatial model Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

auto-correlation only Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

best-fit model with a random border: 61.0% of all pixels correctly predicted Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

best-fit model with a known border: 87.3% of all pixels correctly predicted Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

 mountain pine beetle activity significantly affects the spatial patterning of forest fires, but only after a time lag of ~15 years  mountain pine beetle activity impacts fire risk primarily through a change in stand structure and not as a direct result of increased fuel loading Conclusions Publications: Lynch, H.J. RA Renkin, R.L. Crabtree & P.R. Moorcroft (2006). The Influence of Previous Mountain Pine Beetle Activity on the 1988 Yellowstone Fires. Ecosystems 9:

HyMap (5.7 m resolution, 126 wavelength bands, airplane mounted) Satellite-derived estimates of forest insect damage non-photosynthetic vegetation in red