Eugene S. Takle Professor Department of Agronomy Department of Geological and Atmospheric Science Director, Climate Science Program Iowa State University.

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Presentation transcript:

Eugene S. Takle Professor Department of Agronomy Department of Geological and Atmospheric Science Director, Climate Science Program Iowa State University Ames, IA House Environmental Protection Committee Iowa Legislature Des Moines, IA 21 February 2012 Adaptation to Climate Change: Challenges for Farmers and Small Towns in the US Midwest

Outline  What are we already adapting to? Temperature Precipitation Humidity  Current agricultural adaptation practices  Adaptation challenges for rural communities  Using recent climate records to establish a world view for visioning climate futures

Iowa State-Wide Average Data

Des Moines Airport Data Caution: Not corrected for urban heat island effects

Des Moines Airport Data Caution: Not corrected for urban heat island effects

Des Moines Airport Data 1974: : : : : 0

Des Moines Airport Data 1974: : : : 10 6 days ≥ 100 o F in the last 23 years 2011: 0

Iowa State-Wide Average Data

30.8” 34.0” 10% increase Iowa State-Wide Average Data

30.8” 34.0” 10% increase Iowa State-Wide Average Data 2 years Totals above 40”

30.8” 34.0” 10% increase Iowa State-Wide Average Data 2 years 8 years Totals above 40”

Cedar Rapids Data

28.0”37.0” 32% increase Cedar Rapids Data

28.0”37.0” 32% increase Cedar Rapids Data Years with more than 40 inches 1 11

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Cedar Rapids Data 6.0 days 67% increase 3.6 days

Cedar Rapids Data 3.6 days 6.0 days 67% increase 0 Number of Years with More than 8 Occurrences 9

Photo courtesy of RM Cruse

Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Winter Summer Fall

Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Winter Summer Fall

21.2 => 25.3 inches (22% increase)12.1 => 10.5 inches (13% decrease) Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Winter Summer Fall

Iowa Agricultural Producers are Adapting to Climate Change:  Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later  Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows  More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields  Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces  Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures  Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.  Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions, thereby reducing fuel costs HIGHER YIELDS!! Is it genetics or climate? Likely some of each.

Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest

You are here Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest

Today You are here Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest

Today Past You are here Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest

Today PastFuture You are here Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest

Today PastFuture ? You are here Visioning a Future Climate of the Midwest

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence? ?

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past Future will be like average of the past You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past Future will be like average of the past Future will be like today You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past Future will be like average of the past Future will be like today Current trend will continue You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence?

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past Future will be like average of the past Future will be like today Current trend will continue You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence? What does the best available science have to say?

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past Future will be like average of the past Future will be like today Current trend will continue You be the scientist: For which hypothesis of the future can you find the most evidence? Based on climate models, climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that the future will be more extreme than today

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past Future will be like average of the past Future will be like today Current trend will continue Future will be more extreme than today Best Available Science

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today PastFuture Measured past Volcanoes are the only known natural cooling mechanism of the last 100 years that can offset the known global temperature increases due to greenhouse gases Best Available Science Future will be like average of the past

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Today Past Measured past Offsetting current global temperature increases due to greenhouse gases by known natural causes will require about 5 major volcanoes per decade. By 2030 this rises to about 10/decade 2030 Best Available Science Future will be like average of the past

For More Information: Climate Science Program Iowa State University le/ Iowa Flood Center University of Iowa

Some Climate Variable (temp, precip, humid) Past Measured past Cooling the Climate by Natural Processes Currently it would take about 5 major volcanoes per decade to offset GHG warming By 2030 it will take about 10 major volcanoes per decade to offset GHG warming

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