STRATEGIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Hurdle Rate: Cost of Equity KHURAM RAZA ACMA, MS FINANCE

First Principle and Big Picture

Cost of Equity  CAPM Approach  Risk Free Rate  Risk premium  Risk Parameter: Beta  Historical Market Betas  Beta Fundamentals Business Risk Operating Leverage Financial Leverage o Bottom Up Betas  Accounting Betas  Own bond yield –plus –judgmental Risk Premium Approach  Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Approach

Inputs required to use the CAPM

The Risk free Rate and Time Horizon

The Bottom Line on Risk free Rates

What if there is no default-free entity?

Risk Premium The risk premium in the capital asset pricing model measures the extra return that would be demanded by investors for shifting their money from a riskless investment to an average risk investment. It should be a function of two variables  Risk Aversion of Investors: As investors become more risk averse, they should demand a larger premium for shifting from the riskless asset.  Riskiness of the Average Risk Investment: As the riskiness of the average risk investment increases, so should the premium. This will depend upon what firms are actually traded in the market, their economic fundamentals and how good they are at managing risk

Estimating Risk Premiums There are three ways of estimating the risk premium in the capital asset pricing model –  Large investors can be surveyed about their expectations for the future,  The actual premiums earned over a past period can be obtained from historical data and  The implied premium can be extracted from current market data.  There are no constraints on reasonability; individual money managers could provide expected returns that are lower than the risk free rate, for instance.  Survey premiums are extremely volatile; the survey premiums can change dramatically, largely as a function of recent market movements.  Survey premiums tend to be short term; even the longest surveys do not go beyond one year. Historical Premiums 1.It begins by defining a time period for the estimation 2.It then requires the calculation of the average returns on a stock index and average returns on a riskless security over the period 3.it calculates the difference between the returns on stocks and the riskless return and uses it as a risk premium looking forward. Estimation Issues  Time Period Used  Choice of Risk free Security  Arithmetic and Geometric Averages

Risk Parameter: Beta Historical Market Betas The standard procedure for estimating betas is to regress stock returns (R j ) against market returns (R m ) – Rj = a + b Rm Rj-Rf= a + b (Rm-Rf) Regression Interpretation:  Slope  Intercept  R squared  Standard error Estimation Issues  length of the estimation period  return interval  market index

Fundamental Betas  The beta for a firm may be estimated from a regression but it is determined by fundamental decisions that the firm has made on what business to be in, how much operating leverage to use in the business and the degree to which the firm uses financial leverage.  The beta of a firm is determined by three variables – (1)the type of business or businesses the firm is in (2)the degree of operating leverage in the firm and (3)The firm's financial leverage. The beta value for a firm depends upon the sensitivity of the demand for its products and services and of its costs to mac- roeconomic factors that affect the overall market.  Cyclical companies have higher betas than non‐cyclical firms  Firms which sell more discretionary products will have higher betas than firms that sell less discretionary Operating Leverage: The degree of operating leverage is a function of the cost structure of a firm, and is usually defined in terms of the relationship between fixed costs and total costs. A firm that has high operating leverage (i.e., high fixed costs relative to total costs) will also have higher variability in operating income than would a firm producing a similar product with low operating leverage  Degree of Operating Leverage = % Change in EBIT/ % Change in Sales Financial Leverage Financial leverage is the risk to the stockholders that is caused by an increase in debt and preferred equities in a company's capital structure. As a company increases debt and preferred equities, interest payments increase, reducing EPS. As a result, risk to stockholder return is increased.  Degree of financial leverage = % Change in EPS/ % Change in EBIT

Bottom Up Betas Breaking down betas into their business, operating leverage and financial leverage components provides us with an alternative way of estimating betas, where we do not need past prices on an individual firm or asset to estimate its beta.  The bottom up beta can be estimated by doing the following: 1.Find out the businesses that a firm operates in 2.Find the unlevered betas of other firms in these businesses 3.Take a weighted average of these unlevered betas 4.Lever up using the firm’s debt/equity ratio  The bottom up beta is a better estimate than the top down beta for the follo wing reasons a)The standard error of the beta estimate will be much lower b)The betas can reflect the current (and even expected future) mix of businesses that the firm is in rather than the historical Asset Beta = ß equity (Equity/Debt + Equity) + ß Debt ( Debt/Debt + Equity) ß unlevered = ß levered (1/1+Debt/Equity) (1-t) + 0 ß unlevered (1+Debt/Equity) (1-t) = ß levered

Accounting Betas A third approach is to estimate the market risk parameters from accounting earnings rather than from traded prices. Thus, changes in earnings at a division or a firm, on a quarterly or annual basis, can be regressed against changes in earnings for the market, in the same periods, to arrive at an estimate of a “market beta” to use in the CAPM.  While the approach has some intuitive appeal, it suffers from three potential pitfalls. a)accounting earnings tend to be smoothed out relative to the underlying value of the company b)accounting earnings can be influenced by non-operating factors, such as changes in depreciation or inventory methods c)accounting earnings are measured, at most, once every quarter, and often only once every year

Own bond yield –plus –judgmental Risk Premium Approach Some analysts use a subjective, ad hoc procedure to estimate a firm’s cost of common equity: They simply add a judgmental risk premium of 3% to 5% to the interest rate on the firm’s own long-term debt.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Approach Marginal investor expects dividends to grow at a constant rate and if the company makes all payouts in the form of dividends (the company does not repurchase stock), then the price of a stock can be found as follows: P 0 = D 1 / ( k e – g rowth ) Solving for k e such that k e = ( D 1 / P 0 ) + g rowth Where g = ROE( Retention Ratio) If g = 0 k e = ???