Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling National Institute for Environmental Studies Mikiko Kainuma Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate.

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Presentation transcript:

Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling National Institute for Environmental Studies Mikiko Kainuma Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy, October 25, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

CO2 emission intensity Market Policy gC/m 2 /year

Population projection in Market First Scenario Japan Oceania South East Asia East Asia South Asia Asia-Pacific Western, Eastern, South Africa America Europe + CIS Middle East + Northern Africa million Population projection in Security First Scenario

World GDP in Market First Scenario World GDP in Security First Scenario

Energy related CO 2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region

Change in energy related CO 2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 in sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific region

GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen) GDP loss caused by Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto (without international emission trade)

Recovery by investment in advanced technology development Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto (without international emission trade) GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen) GDP loss caused by Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry

Recovery by increasing environmental premium of consumption Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto (without international emission trade) GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen) Recovery by investment in advanced technology development GDP loss caused by Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry

,000 1,200 1,400 1, CO 2 Emission (MtCO 2 ) A1 A2 B1 B A1 A2 B1 B A1A1 A2A2 B1B1 B2B2 A1A1 A2A2 B1B1 B2B2 (1990=100) Estimates of CO 2 Emission in Japan with AIM end-use model

450 ppmv 550 ppmv 650 ppmv Business as Usual CO2 emissions （ GtC ） Necessary reductions for stabilization assuming Business as Usual development path

GDP loss (%) 750ppm 650ppm 550ppm 450ppm Business as Usual Economic growth control Eco-market establishment Lifestyle change AdvancedTechnology introduction introduction Environmental Innovations for Cost Reduction