Risk Communication Session 2 Early Warning Motoyuki Ushiyama EDUCATION DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION RESTORATION PREPAREDNESS AFTER THE EVENT BEFORE THE EVENT EMERGENCY PRE-IMPACT Disaster IMPACT EARLY WARNING Motoyuki Ushiyama

Contents Time-constraint and real-time communication Early warning as an application of disaster risk communication Time-constraint and real-time communication Hierarchical information structure and command control oriented.  Blocking factors of early warning system Redundancy is necessary in the system End victims’ active participation In this session, we are going to learn the following things, basically along with important characteristics of early warning as an application of risk communication listed here from 1 to 4. First, early warning is time-constrained and involves real-time communication. As we learned in the previous session, early warning is needed at pre-impact or during the disaster period. Therefore, huge amounts of information flow at once. Furthermore, early warning uses hierarchical organization structures to keep a safe command oriented information flow. After the second characteristic, blocking factors of early warning system to interrupt information flow are shown. The third characteristic is redundancy in the system. Since information in early warning is quite critical, redundancy in communication scheme is necessary to keep the quality of the system. Early warning requires active participation of citizens. Especially in areas where early waning systems are not highly developed, expected end-victims need to actively get information. In the end, support for vulnerable people in early warning is mentioned. Support for vulnerable people

Position of early warning in the disaster management cycle During a disaster forecasting, warnings, evacuation, real-time observation. Warning and Hazard Type Weather disaster (heavy rainfall, flood, windstorm) Possible to issue a warning before disaster. Earthquake Not possible to announce pre-disaster warning. As we learned in the previous session early warning is an application of disaster risk communication addressing the phase of pre-impact and impact. Once a disaster occurs, a large amount of critical information starts flowing dynamically. Here, we call forecasting information, warnings and evacuation information as “warning” in a broader sense. The time constraint differs by types of hazards. In the case of weather hazards, such as heavy rainfall, floods, windstorms, it is easier to make warnings before the situation gets worst. On the other hand, in the case of earthquake hazard, it is not possible to issue warnings. We should know how fast and how intensively information will flow and how it will be transmitted in different disasters.

Levels of a weather disaster warning messages Disaster Impact level Time High Low Forecast (Daily information) Hazard Advisory (Alert information) Disaster Let us see what hierarchical structure of early warning messages means. As an example, this figure shows the conceptual map of a weather disaster warning system. The horizontal axis shows the degree of disaster impact, from normal level to most severest level to right. The vertical axis show the progress of time. At the “forecast” level, information is issued on a daily basis. Weather report is a typical example. At the “advisory” and “warning” level, alert information about a potential disaster is issued. Warning is more serious than advisory. Warning is expected to trigger disaster measure actions by various organizations,. At the “evacuation information” level, information is issued to suggest or ask residents to leave from a dangerous area. As you see, depending on the impact level of disaster, types of messages conveyed will vary. Risk communication could fail if this hierarchical structure of warning messages was ignored. It is important for a message sender to care about the priority of messages. For a message receiver, they can prepare for disaster by learning this structure of warning messages. Warning (Action trigger for organizations) Evacuation (Emergency message for residents)

Command control oriented message transmission routes Coast Guard Community Prefectures Municipality Meteorological Agency Telephone company This figure shows an example of command control oriented message transmission routes from governmental organizations to a community. Warning is not necessarily transmitted to direct residents from an announcement organization. Generally, warning is transmitted to residents through some organizations. These organizations do not necessarily have disaster experts. For this reason, transfer of warning information may be forgotten or the contents of warning information may be changed. At the serious time of disaster, a problem often occurs particularly because people are not familiar with the warning about a serious disaster. As an example, in Japan, the Meteorological Service Law states that warning should be transmitted to the coast guard, prefectures, telephone companies, public broadcasting stations, and others from the Meteorological Agencies Furthermore, prefectures have to transmit it to municipality. Information is automatically transmitted via FAX, the E-mail, etc. Public broadcasting station broadcast

Factors that may block the transmission of a Warning Message Examples of Technical Blocking Factors Technical trouble of information transmission system Break up of communication lines or power failure Examples of Human Blocking Factors The person who uses the information system does not understand how to use it. The person who receives the information does not notice the fact. The relay person who receives information forgets or mistakenly neglects to contact and convey the message to another party. Let’s see what factors may block the transmission of a warning message. They are roughly categorized into “Technical blocking factors” and “Human blocking factors”. Technical factors include technical failure, loss of power, etc. For example: technical trouble of information transmission system, or breaking up of communication line or power failure. Human factors , on the other hand, include human error, inadequate planning, etc. An information system operator does not understand the procedure fully, information receiver does not notice the fact, or the relay person who receives information forgets or mistakenly neglects to contact the message to another party. Technical factors can be solved by introduction of a new technology, proper maintenance, backup equipment, etc. Therefore, they can be solved if there is no budget constraint. However, human factors are more difficult to identify and solve.

Redundancy as a fail-safe device for Warning Transmission System Governmental office Other equipments Municipality equipments Local government office Police Fire station Volunteer fire defense organization Loud speaker van Loudspeaker A warning transmission system should have two or more methods of conveying information to the target receiver. This figure shows the warning transmission system’s redundancy as a failsafe device. An advanced transmission system does not always work well at the time of disasters because a new system is vulnerable to incidents never happened before. There should be various methods of transferring messages of warning or evacuation information from city or town office to residents. As a conveying method from a local government office directly to residents, we may use a speaker van, a loudspeaker, a siren, a telephone, oral connection. The role of the media is also important. It is useful for local residents to receive warnings directly. Mass media, Community radio broadcast Residents

Community citizens’ active participation Taiwanese simple rainfall observation device It is significant that local residents measure rainfall by themselves. They can realistically understand and get hands –on experience on how much rainfall means and how dangerous it is to them. Simple Rain-gauge in Taiwan: The River Bureau has distributed this to residents in order to help prevent sediment disaster. Residents can thus observe rainfall. If rainfall amount reaches over the red line, they should immediately evacuate independently. If early warning system has not completed, it is significant that community people themselves measure rainfall. This is another type of early warning system depending on citizens’ active participation. They can understand “quantitatively” that the rainfall detected is higher than usual. When this method is used, education and training of residents are indispensable. This picture shows a simple rainfall observation device in Taiwan. The River Bureau has distributed it to residents in order to look out for a sediment disaster. Residents use this simple instrument to observe rainfall. A community leader of a village does this observation. If rainfall amount is over the red line, he/she will announce a warning for residents to evacuate and take shelter in safe place. The community leader is asked to attend a lecture on disaster prevention by the River Bureau every year.

Support for Vulnerable People Vulnerable people are those who need special assistance at the time of disaster. physically handicapped persons, the elderly, pregnant women, small children, poor people, etc. Even healthy people who do not know an area well are also considered vulnerable people. Foreigners and travelers are examples Identify what kind of vulnerable people are in the area. Have a plan how they will be helped in case of a disaster. In the end of the session, we should mention about support for vulnerable people to disasters. The people who need special assistance at the time of disaster are called “vulnerable people.” These include physically handicapped persons, the elderly, pregnant women, small children, etc.. Vulnerability is not only “physical vulnerability” also “social vulnerability”, but also such as poor people. Even healthy people who do not know an area well are also considered “vulnerable people”. A foreigner or a traveler are examples. At the time of the great Sumatra tsunami disaster in December 2004, many foreign travelers were killed in resort areas. It is necessary to check what kind and how many of vulnerable people are in your jurisdiction. Then, you should plan how vulnerable people will be helped in case of a disaster.