Scientific tools for coastal zone management Hans von Storch

 Non-university public research centre  Staff: > 900, located in Geesthacht/Hamburg and in Teltow/Berlin  Funding: > 90 M € p.a.: 9:1 split between Federal and Regional (Länder) authorities, e.g. Hamburg  National Lab within the Helmholtz-Association (Budget: > 3 Bn €)  HZG- Research Portfolio: 1/3 Coastal and Climate Research, 2/3 Materials Research: 2 Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG) Centre for Materials and Coastal Research HZG - Kaysser - PACES II - 05 March 2013 Preserve resources and guarantee mobility through light-weight and multifunctional materials Enable regenerative therapies through new biomaterials Help society to cope with natural and anthropogenic changes in global and regional coastal systems

Coasts have undergone significant changes in the past centuries and decades. In the past, the usage of the coastal seas was mostly unregulated. Nowadays a detailed planning of the German coastal sea area is prepared, with regulated usage in different parts, such as natural preservation, shipping, tourism and wind energy. This transformation did not happen without broad public debates and conflicts. These conflicts were based on very different perceptions of what the coast is and how it should be used. Coasts

Coasts – contested usages

Coasts need to be managed. Management needs a scientific basis. Task I: Short term events and emerging risks – monitoring and short term prediction. Task II: Determining, describing and assessing ongoing and possible future long-term change. Contribution of coastal science to decision making in coastal issues

Land-Meer-Interaktionen Räumliche und zeitliche Variabilität Trends Events, Risiken Photo: NASA Nordsee COSYNA (Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas) is a synoptic observing system for the environmental status of the North Sea. Numerous automatic in situ and satellite observations are continuously assimilated in models, thus producing hourly real-time forecasts of high quality. The data are used by science, industry, and authorities. Task I: Monitoring the state and the change of the coastal environment

Land-Meer-Interaktionen Räumliche und zeitliche Variabilität Trends Events, Risiken Photo: NASA Nordsee Actual state & forecast: current waves salinity temperature turbidity / chlorophyll Application: oil spills/chemical accidents toxic algal blooms wind farms Operational COSYNA Products

Land-Meer-Interaktionen Räumliche und zeitliche Variabilität Trends Events, Risiken Photo: NASA Nordsee Product Currents

Task II: Determining, describing and assessing on- going and possible future long-term change Coastal conditions and utilizations are permanently changing. Part of the recent change is due to natural processes, another part is man-made. Risks in and utility of coastal zones undergo variations because of these changes. Among the drivers of this change are local modifications (such as dredging shipping channels) and global changes (in particular climate change) Societal decisions (mitigation / adaptation) on how to deal with such changing risks and utility are political, and will be based on social values (such as economic growth, protection of environmental conditions). Coastal science contributes to the knowledge base of such decisions, by explaining ongoing and possible future changes, their links to drivers, and options/perspectives for the future. Coastal science is not part of the decision process itself.

We need knowledge about past conditions and their change -of parameters such as wind, precipitation, ocean waves, currents etc. -for determining risks (of high waves, for instance), of opportunities (frequency of low wind episodes) We need also scenarios of possible future conditions (years, decades in advance) – not forecasts, but possible, plausible conditions which may emerge if a certain measure is taken (accelerated climate change; installation of many wind turbines, adding erosion protection measures …) We describe and analyse past change for 1948-today, and scenarios for the time period in our data bank CoastDat. This system can also be implemented in any other part of the world

Red: buoy, yellow: radar, blue: wave model run with REMO winds wave direction significant wave height [days]

Storm surge height scenarios 2030, 2085 Only the effect of changing weather conditions is considered, not the effect of water works such as dredging the shipping channel.

The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal  Long-term, high-resolution reconstructions (60 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years)  Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe.  Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances.  Extension to other regions and to ecological parameters. Applications  many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts  economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and risks) and shipbuilding company  Public information

Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m 2 ] Some applications - Ship design - Navigational safety - Offshore wind - Interpretation of measurements - Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution - Ocean energy - Scenarios of storm surge conditions - Scenarios of future wave conditions

What are causes of ongoing change? Often a number of drivers are causing change in coastal regions, e.g. climate change, euthropication, pollution, overfishing, mofications of shipping channels etc. In the public debate, often claims about the cause for a change is amde according to the utility of the political argument. - social constructions of causes However, an analysis of the dominant causes is needed. – scientific constructions.

Natural hazards as social construction - an example from Guyana Flooding in Guyana: 1.Historical settlement strategy and structure (ca. 90% of the population and ca. 75% of GDP in coastal plains, sugar & rice). 2.Sugar industry in decline, enhanced lumber production. 3.Heavy flooding in recent years 4.Standard explanation of the flooding: Global sea level rise 5.More detailed analysis reveals: Lack of maintenance of the drainage system due to decline of the sugar industry 6.Lack of national disaster management programs and no political responsibility for the unmaintained drainage canals 7.Deforestation of the hinterland leads to increased runoff  Hazards exist in the context of economic interest, perception, social relations and political influences.

Summary 1.Coastal and climate science are needed for a region like the metropolitan region of Hamburg to face the challenges and chances of climate change and modernization. 2.One scientific challenge is the provision of technology and methods to describe the present change and the short term future for dealing with operational off-shore and on-.shore activities, as well as with managing catastrophic events (incl. oil spills) 3.Another challenge is the analysis of ongoing change, the identification of dominant causes, and the derivation of options for future development.