9 th Euroindicators Working Group Luxembourg, 4 th & 5 th December 2006 Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for European Policies

New Methodological Pages Doc 179/ 06 Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for European Policies Item III - 3 of the Agenda By Gian Luigi Mazzi

Introduction  Euro-indicators special topic : comprehensive information on infra-annual statistics - PEEIs  To media  Researchers  Academics  Students  Official statisticians  etc.  Euro-indicators content:  Data and metadata  News and quality issues  Methodological pages (under development)

Topics for the methodological pages  PEEIs  Flash Estimates  Back recalculation  Benchmarking  Qualitative surveys  Coincident and leading indicators  Seasonal adjustment  Cycle extraction  Turning point dating and detection  Convergence and synchronisation

PEEIs pages  Increase the visibility of PEEIs  Better clarify the meaning and the underlying projects of PEEIs  Better explain similarities, synergies and differences between PEEIs and Euroindicators. Development of a set of pages on PEEIs

PEEIs pages structure (1)  Background  List of PEEIs  History  PEEIs Political framework  Action Plan  COM(2002) 661 final  ECF Status Report  New legal acts  …

PEEIs pages structure (2)  PEEIs Political framework  Action Plan  COM(2002) 661 final  ECF Status Report  New legal acts  …

PEEIs pages structure (3)  Improvement policies  PEEIs flash estimates  Filling gaps  Production process acceleration  Extending coverage  Higher frequency  Production of guidelines

PEEIs pages structure (4)  Comparison between European Union and U.S.  Comparison tables with metadata on structural differences

PEEIs pages structure (5)  Quality issues for PEEIs  Links to synthetic quality tables for PEEIs

Flash Estimates  Methodology  Alternative methodologies for flash estimates  GDP and HICP  Ongoing projects on flash estimates  Results: available test results from flash estimates projects  Software: FLASH program and other flash estimation packages  Bibliography

Back recalculation  Methodology  Eurostat methodology for back recalculation  Links with DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD back recalculation methodologies  Eurostat test results  Software  Bibliography

Benchmarking  Methodology  Eurostat studies on benchmarking  Eurostat methodology for a monthly indicator of euro area economic activity  Links to DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD benchmarking methodologies  Eurostat test results on a monthly indicator of euro area economic activity  Software  New Ecotrim,  Other benchmarking packages  Bibliography

Qualitative surveys  Methodology  Methodological studies on quantification methods  Alternative construction of confidence and sentiment indicators and seasonal adjustment  Links to DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD methodological studies  Eurostat test results on  Alternative quantifications  Seasonal adjustment  Confidence and sentiment indicators  Software  Bibliography

Coincident and leading indicators  Methodology  Eurostat methodologies for the construction of a coincident indicator of GDP and Industrial Production  Links with DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD and private institutes methodologies on coincident and leading indicators  Results  Comparative table on existing euro area leading indicators  Eurostat test results on the coincident indicators of GDP and Industrial Production  Software  Bibliography

Seasonal adjustment  Methodology  Eurostat guidelines for seasonal adjustment  ECB recommendations for seasonal adjustment  Eurostat and ECB recommendations for QNA seasonal adjustment  Comparative analysis for alternative seasonal adjustment methods  Eurostat test results on alternative seasonal adjustment of euro area and EU aggregates  Software  New Demetra  Links to Tramo-Seats, X-12, X-13 A-S and other relevant packages  Bibliography

Trend-Cycle estimates  Methodology  Alternative definitions of cyclical fluctuations  Eurostat and other methodologies for the estimation of growth cycle and output gap  BUSY project  Eurostat test results on alternative trend-cycle decompositions  Software  BUSY  Links to GAP and other relevant packages  Bibliography

Turning point dating and detection  Methodology  Alternative methods for dating and detection of turning points  Eurostat methodology for the construction of a statistical integrated chronology of turning points  Links to existing chronologies of turning points  Links to existing turning points coincident and leading indicators  Eurostat test results  Comparative tables on existing turning point chronologies  Statistical integrated chronology of turning points  Software  Bibliography

Convergence and synchronisation  Methodology  Convergence and synchronisation measures  Results  Software  Bibliography

Conclusions  A real added value for the Euro-indicators special topic  Significant workload for the Euro-indicators team  Requests to the Working Group:  Give its advice on the proposed list of topics  Suggest improvements and/or modifications to the list of topics  Contribute to the different topics by supplying the Euro- indicators team with all necessary information