MPR February

Figure 1.1. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate. The uncertainty band shows the band within which the repo rate is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note.The uncertainty band shows the band within which GDP growth is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.3. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.4. CPIF with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.5. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Note. The spread is calculated as difference between the three-month interbank rate and the three-month treasury bill.

Figure 1.6. GDP-growth abroad Annual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.7. World Trade Monitor Index Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Figure 1.8. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.

Figure 1.9. Commodity prices Index 2000 = 100, USD Source: The Economist

Figure Development for GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally- adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Public sector net lending Percentage of GDP Sources: OECD and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent forecasts. The forecast for Sweden is the Riksbank's forecast, while for other countries it is the OECD's forecast, December 2009.

Figure Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USA GDP-level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP Sweden Index in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession = 100 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Legends denote the quarter in which the index = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks forecast. X-axis relates to quarters.

Figure Households’ consumption, disposable incomes and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Households' fixed terms for mortgages Percentage of loan stock Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Refers to original fixed term. Variable interest rate relates to loans with a fixed term of up to three months.

Figure Swedish exports and world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Dots represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.

Figure Gross fixed capital formation Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Seasonally adjusted by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure GDP and employment Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Pre-2001 employment data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, year.

Figure Employment rate Employment as a percentage of the population, year, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Unemployment Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, years.

Figure Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Trend calculated using a Hodrick- Prescott filter. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Full utilisation of companies’ resources, private service industries Proportion of companies, per cent Source: NIER

Figure GDP's deviation from HP trend and Resource utilisation indicator Per cent and standard deviations Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. These gaps should not necessarily be interpreted as the Riksbank's overall assesment of resource utilisation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Nominal wages Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Refers to wages according to short-term salaries statistics from 1993 and according to wage and salary structure statistics previous to Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 2.1. Hourly labour cost Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.2. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.3. CPIF Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.4. Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.5. Hours worked and trend Millions of hours per quarter, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The last two observations for hours worked refer to the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.6. Hours worked Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.7. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.8. CPIF Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.9. Exchange rate, TCW Index, = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure CPIF Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure CPIF Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 3.1. Stock market movements Index, = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Figure 3.2. Government bonds in various euro countries (difference compared to Germany) Percentage points Source: Reuters EcoWin Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

Figure 3.3. Policy rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin

Figure 3.4. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants Per cent Sources: Reuters Ecowin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 3.5. International comparison between central banks´ balance sheet totals Percent of GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks

Figure 3.6. Housing prices Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. Quarterly observations of property price index and monthly observations of the mean value of the purchase price coefficient (Purchase price/Taxation value).

Figure 3.7. Money Supply Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 3.8. Exchange rates SEK per euro and dollar Source: Reuters EcoWin

Figure 3.9. Chinese export and import Annual precentage change Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Figure Purchasing mangarer's index Index, over 50 indicates growth Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank Note. Refers to manufacturing industry in the United States and Sweden and weighted average of service sector and manufacturing industry in the euro area.

Figure Export Index, january 2006 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat

Figure Unemployment Percentage of the labour force Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat

Figure Households confidence indicators Net values Source: European Commission

Figure HICP for the Euro area Annual percentage change Source: Eurostat

Figure The Economic Tendency Indicator Index, mean = 100 Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure Industrial production and the production of services Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure Assessments of stocks of finished goods Seasonally adjusted net values Source: National Institute of Economic Research Note. Higher net figures entail greater dissatisfaction with too high stocks.

Figure Households' expectations for the future Net figures Source: National Institute of Economic Research Note. Unemployment is defined here as the percentage of households that believe unemployment will fall minus the percentage who believe that unemployment will rise.

Figure Bank lending to companies and households Annual precentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure Capital utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Three-month moving averages. Fixed prices calculated by the Riksbank.

Figure New export orders Net figures and annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure Employment rate, labour force and unemployment Thousands and percentage of labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Employment service and the Riksbank Note. Three-month moving averages.

Figure New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Source: Employment service and the Riksbank

Figure Employees in the business sector, expectations and outcome Seasonally adjusted net figures Sources: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Source: NIER

Figure Wages Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

Figure Expectations of inflation one year ahead Per cent Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and TNS SIFO Prospera Note. Household figures are monthly, others quarterly.

Figure Money market players' expectations of inflation one, two and five years ahead Per cent Source: TNS SIFO Prospera Note. Monthly survey from September Quarterly surveys prior to this.

Figure The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-even inflation) Percentage points Source: The Riksbank

Figure Different measures of underlying inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. TRIM85 and UND24 are calculated on the basis of CPI divided into around 70 subgroups. UND24 is weighted and adjusted for the historical standard deviation. In TRIM85 the 7.5 per cent most positive and negative yearly price changes each month have been excluded.

Figure Prices of goods and services in the CPI Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.

Figure Goods prices in CPI and prices of durable consumer goods for domestic supply Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. ITPI weighs together the import price index and the domestic market price index within the system for the producer price index.

Figure HICP in Sweden and in the euro area Annual percentage change Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden

Figure B1. Market agents' expectations of the level of the nominal repo rate in 5 years Survey responses between June 2005 and end of December 2009, per cent. Sources: TNS Prospera AB and the Riksbank

Figure B2. Distribution of market agents' expectations of the level of the nominal repo rate in 5 years. Survey responses since December 2009 Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

Figure B3. Nominal and real 5 year forward rates Per cent Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

Figure B4. Wage increases and wage increases agreed at union level in Sweden during the period Q Q Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Table A1. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly average values Source: The Riksbank

Table A2. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A3. Inflation 12-month average annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A4. Summary of financial forecasts Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A5. International conditions Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

Table A6. GDP by expenditure Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Table A7. Production and employment Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Per cent of labour force

Table A8. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A9. Alternative scenario with higher wages, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Note. Main scenario’s forecast within brackets.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A10. Alternative scenario with lower wages, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Note. Main scenario’s forecast within brackets.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A11. Alternative scenario with higher long-term labour supply, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Note. Main scenario’s forecast within brackets.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A12. Alternative scenario with weaker exchange rate, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Note. Main scenario’s forecast within brackets.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A13. Alternative scenario with higher repo rate, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Note. Main scenario’s forecast within brackets.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A14. Alternative scenario with lower repo rate, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Note. Main scenario’s forecast within brackets.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank