Regional and Urban Policy Expected Results for Low Carbon Economy and Transport Ivanka Lakova and Jan Marek Ziółkowski Evaluation and European Semester Unit DG REGIO 18 June 2015 Pilot analysis of result indicators in programmes 1

Objective of the study To provide an overview of expected results in the area of low carbon economy and transport and identify if any patterns emerge across MS or types of regions Hence the methodology  All specific objectives set in the adopted programmes and their corresponding result indicators are subject to the analysis.  Result indicators are perceived as the expression of the intended change.  Emerging patterns in their nature are summarised by thematic objective. 2

Scope of the study  This is a pilot exercise, so it reviews only thematic objectives 4 (IP 4a-b and e, IP 4i-ii and v) and 7 (IP 7a-d and IP 7i-iii).  Expected change being the focus of its attention, it does not analyse the programme activities and outputs for relevance and adequacy to the result sought.  Due to the inherent characteristics of the programmes, capturing the financial weight of identified results is problematic. 3

Analysis of result indicators TO 4 low-carbon Target = result indicators and specific objectives under IP 4 a, b (ERDF) and i, ii (CF) covering:  153 adopted OPs (cut-off date 09/06/2015)  24 MS  Some MS are missing either because some OPs are not yet adopted (BG, CZ, IT, ES) or because they do not invest in the two IPs analysed 4

Main findings Low Carbon (1/2) 5  Increased production of energy from renewable sources (less on distribution), measured through:  Units of energy produced or available (electricity in the vast majority, green heat only minor)  Units of energy/share consumed (in majority OPs)  Number of innovative approaches/technologies having given rise to increased production (2 OPs)  Expanded storage capacity (2 OPs)  Reduced levels of GHG emissions (6 OPs, of which 3 with ambitious values for change and remote baseline years, the other 3 with no values identified)

Main findings Low Carbon (2/2) 6  Improving energy efficiency and increased use of renewables in enterprises, measured thru:  Reduced levels for GHG emissions by companies, which while difficult to quantify, is planned to be in the vicinity of 50 Mte CO2.  Reduced consumption and energy savings in companies (unfit to reflect energy efficiency) but used by a large number of OPs  Raising productivity levels  Decreasing energy intensity of enterprises (2 OPs)

Analysis of result indicators related to transport interventions Result indicators defined for the specific objectives under the investment priorities 4e (ERDF) and 4v (CF), as well as 7a-d (ERDF) and 7i-iii (CF). This includes all interventions that contribute to transport related results. Almost all transport allocation is under either Thematic objective 4 or 7 7

Main findings Transport (1/3)  Transport infrastructure is a concern for a large number of managing authorities (over 70% of reviewed OPs included at least one of the investment priorities).  Reduction of the environmental impact of transport is a result sought by 45% of reviewed OPs that target transport (there is at least one indicator showing an expected reduction in emissions or other environmental impact). 8

Main findings Transport (2/3)  However, benefit for the environment is expected to take place mostly in the urban public transport context. The investment in other sectors are hardly ever indicated to contribute to a decrease in environmental impact.  The increase in share of environmental friendly means of transport in the transport mix or in use of public collective transport is much more often expected in the context of TO4 than any IP of TO7. 9

Main findings Transport (3/3)  The results expected outside of urban / public transport context fall mostly in the following categories:  increase in use of all types of supported infrastructure,  increase in accessibility and decrease in travel time, mostly for road or rail network, or  improved quality/coverage of the transport network, again mostly for road or rail network. 10

Count of Cntry Code Category of SourceTotal Eurostat136 National Statistical Office913 Sub-national Statistical Office98 Central Administrative Source767 Regional Administrative Source305 Monitoring System304 Action Plan22 Survey394 Not indicated20 Grand Total2959 Count of Cntry Code Category of SourceTotal Eurostat4.60% National Statistical Office30.86% Sub-national Statistical Office3.31% Central Administrative Source25.92% Regional Administrative Source10.31% Monitoring System10.27% Action Plan0.74% Survey13.32% Not indicated0.68% Grand Total % 11