Slow Boil: Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability Brown University Providence, 8 April 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

Slow Boil: Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability Brown University Providence, 8 April 2011

Outline 1.The rise of climate adaptation in LAC 2.Colombia & the global climate talks 3.Colombia’s climate vulnerability 4.How to shoot the rapids and survive?

The rise of climate adaptation “It was understood that [the Kyoto Protocol] would only include commitments to reduce emissions… –Michael Zammit- Cutajar 1 “A […] critical element for success in Cancún is to strike a better balance when considering climate adaptation and mitigation” –Yvo de Boer 2

The rise of climate adaptation LAC Scaled-up interest / participation Shifting priorities

The rise of climate adaptation Just 11% of accumulated global emissions ( )

Big differences in GHG emissions…

… but climate vulnerability is a common concern

The rise of climate adaptation Probabilidad de ocurrencia Un evento cada X años Probabilidad de ocurrencia disminuye Daños millones USD 2008 Ejemplo curva de vulnerabilidad para inundación en Guyana Caso extremo 2030

COP 1 Berlin 1995 COP 6 Bonn 2001 COP 10 Buenos Aires 2004 COP 12 Nairobi 2006 Colombia & the global climate talks < 2006 Niche area (Envt. & Foreign Affairs) CDM / Forests focus

Colombia & the global climate talks 2007 – 2009 Strategic relations w/, like-minded partners beyond LAC (e.g. AOSIS) Leadership role on adaptation / finance Pres. Uribe in group of 25 leaders at CPH

Colombia & the global climate talks 2010 < CPH Accord / Cancun pledge Cartagena Dialogue Broader x-Govt participation

Colombia flood emergency, million affected in 28 of 32 states 310 dead 6,700 homes destroyed

Economic impacts Short term: Crop loss Food price spike Localized (household / community impacts) Long term: It depends!?

Failed humanitarian response Late Poorly coordinated Inadequate (below international standards)

Colombia’s climate vulnerability What went wrong? High exposure: –Yes, but not worst in 60 years…1988 La Niña –Yearly victims in Colombia Resources: –No, plenty of resources! Response coordination: –Yes, Politically-bungled –UN didn’t help Underlying structural vulnerabilities –Yes! Inequality Persistent failure to embrace ARR

How to shoot the rapids and survive? 1.Embrace ‘disaster risk management’: –Political & operational power of Govt. disaster management agency –Comprehensive, sustainable, effective disaster risk management policy: –Sustained investment in local disaster management capacities –Structural fund for climate adaptation & risk management 2.Reconcile with countervailing development pathway

Conclusions 1.Climate adaptation, Latin American imperative 2.Colombia, international climate champion 3.Colombia, domestic disaster victim 4.Colombia (and LAC) can build resilience, but only by reconciling divergent paths

Notes 1.Climate Change TV interview (video), June 2009: 2.“Copenhagen shows we need caution in Cancún,” Nature, 24 November 2010:

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