WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE ON THE CLIMATOLOGY OF WEST AFRICA SARR, A. (SENEGAL) MONKAM, D. (CAMEROUN) INTSIFUL, J.D (GHANA)

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 OUTLINE INTRODUCTION MODEL CONFIGURATION VALIDATION AGAINST RE-ANALYSIS AND CRU DATA SENSITIVITY TESTS CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 MOTIVATION PRESENT UNIQUE FEATURES OF REGION  DROUGHT  DESERTIFICATION  DEFORESTATION LANDUSE CHANGE

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 MAIN CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES LOWER TROPOSPHERE (MONSOON) MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE (AEJ) UPPER TROSPOSPHERE (TEJ)

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 MODEL CONFIGURATION-1 Physics : - Spatial resolution :  Horizontal - 50 km  Vertical - 18 and 23 level - Schemes :  AS / FC  GRELL / AS

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 MODEL CONFIGURATION-2 Run length : 38 days  25/07/96 to 01/09/96  25/07/95 to 01/09/95 Initial & lateral boundary conditions : ECMWF Re-analysis(ERA)

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 VALIDATION AGAINST REANALISES & CRU DATA Surface temperature Meridioanal flux at 925 hPa Zonal wind filed at 700 hPa Zonal wind field at 200 hPa

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 SENSITIVITY TESTS Landuse change:  Default  Corrected  Scenarios - 75% desert, 25% savanna CPS and Vertical Resolution

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 LANDUSE MAPS Corrected Scenario Default USGS

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 MLY. MEAN TEMPERATURE DEF SCE COR ERA

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 MONTHLY MEAN AEJ DEF SCE ERA

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 MONTHLY MEAN TEJ ERA SCE DEF

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 DEF SCE ERA MONTHLY MEAN SPC. HUMIDITY

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 PRECIP DEF-CONV SCE-ACC DEF-ACC

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE RESEARCH OBSERVED CLIMATIC CHANGES IN LAND USE SCENARIO GENERAL FEATURES OF TEMP.,TEJ & AEJ WELL CAPTURED WITH FEW DISCREPANCIES (LOCALLY) GENERAL FEATURES OF HUMIDITY WELL CAPTURED BUT BIAS OVER THE OCEAN AND INLAND FEATURES OF TOTAL PRECIP. POORLY CAPTURED DUE TO CONFIGURATION PROBLEMS AND PHYSICS GENERAL FEATURES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP. WELL CAPTURED BUT SIGNAL TOO WEAK TO REFLECT IN TOTAL PRECIP. RESULTS ONLY PRELIMINARY & NEEDS MORE OPTIMISATION OF THE MODEL PHYSICS

WORSHOP ON MODELING PWC/ICTP June 2003 THANK YOU