Agency on statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan Training Workshop on the Compilation of Quarterly National Accounts for Economic Cooperation Organization Member Countries 1 Nasriddinov A. Economist of the National Account department Agency of the statistics under the President of Republic of Tajikistan 8 – 11 March 2015 Tehran, Iran (Venue: Statistical Research and Training Centre of Iran )

With the transition of the Republic of Tajikistan to the market economy emerged historical due to the transition from the balance of the national economy to the system of national accounts to be used for the reflection of macroeconomic processes in the transition period of the republic to the socio - oriented market economy 2 The introduction of SNA -93

The practical implementation of System of National Accounts in Tajikistan started in The implementation of SNA -93 was spent in statistics: - with cooperation of the international organization - Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, rendering the consultative and methodical help in assimilation of SNA. 3

The national accounts (NA) are compiled by the Agency in line with SNA 1993 methodology by using data collected by various Agency departments and administrative data submitted by other government agencies, including National bank of Tajikistan (NBT) and Ministry of finance (MF). The Agency produces all main current accounts, some accounts for institutional sectors, monthly – annual GDP, gross regional product GRP (estimation) 4 The introduction of SNA -93

In Tajikistan GDP calculated by three method:  production method  expenditure method  income method 5 GDP calculated by three methods:

PRODUCTION METHOD – production of branches of economy by statistical report, data of taxes and subsidies by state budget of Ministry of Finance, the intermediate consumption calculated by statistical reports which included material expenditure. EXPENDITURE METHOD - expenditure of households estimated by goods streams and data of household’s survey, expenditure of government on the basis of state budget, fixed capital formation definite on the basis of information of construction department, changes in inventories complained by annual report of account balance of enterprises and estimated by methodical calculation, export and import estimated by data of external trade statistics and then corrected with “Payment Balance” of National Bank. INCOME METHOD - data of labor statistics and data of state budget by taxes and subsidies. 6

Currently in Tajikistan implemented calculations accounts  Account of goods and services  Production account  Generation of income account  Allocation of primary income account  Secondary distribution of income account  Used of disposable income account  Capital account 7

Main data sources of National Account  Statistical information (annual and quarterly)  Data of state budget of Ministry of Finance  Selective services of branches of economy  Data of household survey  Data of Labour Force survey

 Production side - all aggregates compiled in current and constant prices.  Expenditure side - all aggregates compiled in current and constant prices.  Constant prices –all aggregates calculated only in prices of previous year 9 Estimation of aggregates of SNA

Quarter GDP AS start to produce QNA in 2008, with technical support international expert (Slovakia) in the framework SNSS project (WB); For calculation of QNA used cumulative data and we made estimated quarterly data, because in more statistics areas we have not quarterly reporting forms (agricultural, trade, services, construction etc. 10

Quarter GDP 2011 (est.) 11 OutputIntermediate consumption Gross value added TaxesGDP Q IQ I Q II Q III Q IV Total mln. dollar

Quarter GDP OutputIntermediate consumption Gross value added TaxesGDP Q IQ I Q II Q III Q IV Total mln. dollar

Quarter GDP OutputIntermediate consumption Gross value added TaxesGDP Q IQ I Q II Q III Q IV Total mln. dollar

The future plan is to do the following 1:  strengthening human capacity, skills and knowledge in the of national accounts department AS;  Improved data on industry statistics, use of quarterly price index to calculate the QNA;  improvement of estimates of GDP at constant prices;  improvement of the quarterly calculations simultaneously organization collecting quarterly data in branch departments agencies; 14

 improvement of methods of measurement of the output of the informal sector and illegal activities;  improvement of calculation of consumption of fixed capital;  improvement in the method of calculation of holding gains;  improvement of calculation of FISIM;  financial accounts;  completion of the implementation of the SNA 1993 and phased transition to the SNA The future plan is to do the following 2:

The very high turnover and weak capacity of the personnel require that their practical skills are strengthened in the compilation of national accounts, in- depth methodological recommendations and directions for improvement of further work. 16 Conclusion

For this reason we need to prepare and teach people on the one of the main sector of statistics – National accounts. The important issues also is to Learn from experience of other countries. Also improvement of the quality of economic statistics is important. 17 Conclusion

18 THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION ! office:

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION ! با تشکر از توجه ! İ LG İ N İ Z İ Ç İ N TEŞEKKÜR EDER İ Z! НАЗАРЛАРЫ Ң ЫЗ Ғ А РАХМЕТ D İ QQ Ə T İ N İ Z Ə GÖR Ə T Ə Ş Ə KKÜR ED İ R Ə M توجه کی لی شکریه 19