National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction An Overview

2 Defining Climate and Weather Prediction The NOAA Prediction Process Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Service Future Considerations Overview

3 Defining Climate and Weather Prediction

4 Defining Climate and Weather Prediction and Links Between the Two Weather Events Lasting Several Days (Snowstorms, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Hot & Cold Periods) Forecasts Made for Specific Parameters - Events Forecasts Have Skill Out to 7 Days Climate AVERAGE of Weather Events over a Week, Month, Season Forecasts are for AVERAGE Conditions, Unusual Seasons, Storminess, Drought,… Seasonal Forecasts Have Limited Skill, Linked to Strong Climatic Signals Linkages [*]ENSO and MJO influence on storm tracks (cold season) and hurricanes (warm season) [#]Long-term trends in extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) Climate Change ( Trends) Climate Change ( Trends) Weather (Extreme Events) Weather (Extreme Events) Seasonal Climate Variability El Nino, La Nino Seasonal Climate Variability El Nino, La Nino * #

5 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Weather Prediction Products Climate Prediction Products TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth

6 The NOAA Prediction Process

7 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Feedback Distribute Local Offices Local Offices Central Guidance Central Guidance Process Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, …

8 Need for a Balanced Approach Observations – Global –Oceans –Atmosphere –Land –Cryosphere Numerical Prediction Models Computational Power/Communications Forecasters

9 Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services Mission What Does NCEP Do? Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made Computing Capability GPRA Measures Long-Term Performance Gains

10 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Space Environment Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

11 51 FTE Total FTE: Contractors/20 Visitors

12 What Does NCEP Do? ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

Global Forecast System *Climate Forecast System GFDL Hurricane NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Air Quality Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made Forecas t Aviation Hourly Forecast GLOBALGLOBAL DATADATA Ocean Regional Weather Forecast Models Ocean

Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models Cryosphere Atmosphere Ocean Land Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

15 Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: Trillion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005 Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) $26.4M/Year Investment

16 GPRA Scores Performance Measure Actual 2002 Actual 2003 Goal/Actual 2004 Goal/Actual 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours) 124 nm107 nm129 nm/94 nm128 nm/NA Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score” /.29.27/.32 U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%) /1718/20 NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

17 Long-Term Performance Gains

18 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP

19

20 HPC Forecasters Add Value Models provide basis for improvement Correlations Of HPC with: Eta: 0.99 GFS: 0.74 NGM: 0.85 (DOC GPRA goal)

In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill Day 7 Day 5 Day 3

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

23 Future Considerations

24 Expanding “Environmental” Services Air Quality Prediction (with the EPA) Ocean Modeling  Provide “Backbone” for Regional Coastal Model Advancing Prediction of Extreme Events –Hurricane intensity –Snowstorms –Severe Weather –Fire Weather –Floods Advancing Two week to One Year Climate Forecasts for El Nino/La Nina  Seasonal Predictions with the new Climate Forecast System

25 Linkages to Outside Community International programs – GEOSS, THORPEX WMO- sponsored climate programs “Community Modeling” between research and operational communities to accelerate transition of forecast improvements from research to operations Test Beds – e.g., Climate Test Bed – to accelerate transition from research to operations and improve forecast products Interagency efforts to use global research and operational global satellite data more effectively (NASA, NOAA, DoD “Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation”) World-Class Facility for the research to operations enterprise (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, move in FY08!)

26 NCEP’s Future Location Current Location NOAA Science Center World Weather Building Camp Springs New Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (Early FY08)

27 NCEP’s Future Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (Early FY08)

28 Student Employment Programs at NOAA Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP) –Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school. –Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration.

29 Student Employment Programs at NOAA NOAA Faculty and Student Intern Research Program administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE): –Ten week faculty and student intern research program. Primary focus to provide work experience to faculty, graduate and undergraduate students under represented in mission-related occupations. FTE neutral. NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program –Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school. For more information on all NOAA programs – National Science Foundation’s Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) Program –NOAA’s NSSL, Storm Prediction Center, Norman WFO, ROC and WDTB host students through the University of Oklahoma (

30 NCEP Employment Situation Employment situation – FY05 –Total of 426 Civil Servants; 146 contractors; 20 visitors –Currently have 21 Student Interns –During the last 12 months 32 CS vacancies; 9 SCEP/STEP Hired 22 contractors & visiting scientists 12 Summer/Student Program Hires (ORISE, NCAS, NOAA Educational Partnership Programs, Research Experiences for Undergraduates) –Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs) –NCEP HR specialist –

31 Summary NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Ready to work with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, service and delivery –A challenging place to work from both an applied research and operational perspective