COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC POTENTIALS of NON-FOOD OPTIONS International Food Security Impacts of European Non-Food Options Chris Llull a, Uwe A. Schneider a,b, Petr Havlik b, Michael Obersteiner b, Ingo Huck a, Bruno Dorin c, Timm Sauer a Erwin Schmid d a Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Germany b International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria c French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), France d University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April Increasing concerns about the sustainability of bioenergy. Impact of bioenergy on the food system. In a context of population, economic growth and resource scarcity. Introduction

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April Regional Resolution

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April POPULATION GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH LAND SUPPLY WATER SUPPLY FOOD DEMAND BIOENERGY TECHNICAL PROGRESS CO2 TAX DEFORESTATION q p CS PS p* q* D S Exogenous Parameters

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April Food Price Food Trade Food Consumption Food Composition Food Security Main Output

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April Population growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030 Economic growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030 Bioenergy: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 10% of total energy demand by 2030 Technical progress: 20% increase in productivity Environmental policies: Carbon taxes 100 $ / ton Deforestation: allowed or not allowed Scenarios

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12 GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD PRICE

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18 GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD CONSUMPTION

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20 bioenergy yield taxTax & yield

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April bioenergy yield

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD COMPOSITION

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24 bioenergy yield tax Tax & yield

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April bioenergy yield tax Tax & yield

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD TRADE

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29 REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD CONSUMPTION

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32 REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD COMPOSITION

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35 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY

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38 bioenergy yield tax Tax & yield

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April bioenergy yield

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41 All regions are affected Food consumption and food composition are affected Non linear effects Bioenergy emphasizes the degradation of the nutritional situation in Sub-Saharan Africa Technical progress overcomes the negative impact on both food consumption and food composition only if deforestation is allowed. Overview of the Results

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April A competitive market is assumed. Institutional or infrastructure related developments are ignored overestimation No endogenous revenue from the agricultural sector due to increasing food prices and production of bioenergy underestimation Major Limitations

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April Conclusion NON-FOOD USE DEFORESTATIONFOOD SECURITY The model can deliver possible combination of the different outputs (production frontiers) Determining the optimal development pathway requires to define priorities based on social value of the competing outputs

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, April Thank you