Forecasting l and of ___________________ » : use of _/ mathematical modeling » : _____!

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Presentation transcript:

Forecasting l and of _______________________ » : use of _______/ mathematical modeling » : _______!

Forecasting: l --based on historical records l Records should note: »____ and __________; »meal or hour of service; »special event; »________ conditions

Forecasting Models: Time series 1._________: use on the same menu item over time; take the average of __________ 2._______________: assign a greater weight to the most recent data  α = judgment factor between 0 and 1 (usually 0.3)  If α ~ 1, you will adjust substantially for error in the last forecast; if α ~ 0, the forecasts will be similar New forecast = [α X last demand] + [(1- α) X last forecast]

Forecasting Models: Causal l ___________ analysis »plot data over time »find equation for a line that minimizes the deviations of the independent variable(s) »independent variable(s) = ____________________ »dependent variable = __________________ 1.linear regression 2.multiple regression

Forecasting Models: Subjective l _______________ »use when data are ________ or patterns change ________ over time 1.Delphi technique 2.Panel consensus 3.Market research 4.Historical analogy 5.Visionary forecast

Criteria for Use of a Forecasting Model l _____________ »software, training l _________ l _________ of past data »is there a clear relationship between past and present needs? l pattern of behavior you need to chart l _________

Production Scheduling l Time ________________ to produce a meal l Assign responsibility for menu item production to appropriate units; distribute needed quantities of product

Worksheet indicates: l *actual ____, *________ count l *over/under production, *runout time; ___________ l *weather, *comments

Production Scheduling l Consider ____________ »vegetables »grilled, deep fried, broiled items l Hold production meetings to discuss:

How much labor? l 1 server can handle _____ tables l 1 bartender can serve _____ patrons l 1 chef can cook for a _____- seat restaurant l Remember seasonal variation, school calendars, special events l These estimates might be all wrong for your operation!