Monetizing the Health Impacts of Wood Smoke Kickoff Meeting January 13, 2014

Abt Associates | pg 2 Kickoff Meeting Objectives  Project team and subcommittee introduction  Overview of the project  Project tasks and deliverables  Establish a timeline for project tasks

Abt Associates | pg 3 Abt Associates Team Dr. Jonathan Dorn Project Manager David Cooley Emissions Support Dr. Anna Belova Senior Reviewer and Quality Advisor Jacqueline Haskell COBRA Modeler

Abt Associates | pg 4 Project Overview  Abt Associates (Abt) will quantify ($) the potential environmental and health impacts of reducing wood smoke through energy conservation programs  Required environmental impacts will be modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Co-Benefit Risk Assessment (COBRA) Screening Model

Abt Associates | pg 5 Task A: Collect Data on Sources of Emissions Overview  Abt will work with RTF staff to obtain data and information on the following: –Residential Building Stock Assessment (RBSA) –Data on electricity generating units in the region, including the baseline and marginal generation by fuel source  County-level wood smoke emissions data will be calibrated to reflect PNW conditions described by RBSA data and EPA air quality data  Emissions data from existing power plants will be based on EPA county-level baseline emissions data  The list of inputs used to compute baseline emissions will be reviewed by the Wood Smoke subcommittee

Abt Associates | pg 6 Task A: Collect Data on Sources of Emissions Deliverables  Subcommittee-reviewed matrix of inputs and their sources required to model baseline emissions scenario in COBRA

Abt Associates | pg 7 Task B: Construct Baseline Model Overview Construct a baseline model to meet the following criteria:  Baseline emissions model will be calibrated using regional data air quality published by the EPA  The simulation results will be calculated at the county level

Abt Associates | pg 8 Deliverables  Calibrated baseline simulation results for a specified year presented in tabular and graphic forms  A brief memorandum describing the baseline model calibration process  Presentation to RTF staff on baseline assumptions and results Task B: Construct Baseline Model

Abt Associates | pg 9 Task C: Scenario Analysis Overview  Develop alternate wood emissions scenario using the model developed under Task B  Each scenario will vary by a fixed increment from 0% to 100% wood heat reduction –Abt and RTF staff shall mutually agree on the level of increments for scenario analysis based on time, and budget constraints

Abt Associates | pg 10 Deliverables  Changes in emissions at the county level with respect to the baseline for each new scenario calculated and presented in tabular and graphic forms Task C: Scenario Analysis

Abt Associates | pg 11 Task D: Apply the Monetary Value of Avoiding Emissions Overview  Monetize the health impacts (in $) due to net change in emission levels for each Task C scenario  A “$-per-unit emissions” value shall be researched through existing literature and converted to a $/kWh value of reducing wood smoke

Abt Associates | pg 12 Deliverables  Per-unit impact ($/kWh) of reducing wood heat using electricity  $ impact of reducing wood heat for each Task C scenario Task D: Apply the Monetary Value of Avoiding Emissions

Abt Associates | pg 13 Task E: Final Deliverables and Presentation of Results Deliverables  Final presentation of study results  Accessible and transparent dataset of results for baseline and emissions level scenarios  COBRA model used to develop the results  Memorandum recommending how the RTF should interpret and use the results of the study

Abt Associates | pg 14 Schedule of Deliverables TaskDeliverableDate Kick-off conference callJanuary 13 AA.1. Matrix of inputs and sourcesJanuary 24 B B.1. Calibrated, county-level baseline simulation results in tabular and graphic form February 12 B.2. Presentation to RTF staff on baseline assumptions and resultsFebruary 14 C C.1. Changes in county-level emissions with respect to the baseline for each new scenario modeled with results presented in tabular and graphic form February 28 DD.1. Per unit impact ($/kWh) of reducing wood heat using electricityMarch 12 E E.1. Accessible and transparent dataset of results for baseline and emissions level scenarios March 19 E.2. COBRA model used to develop the resultsMarch 19 E.3. Memorandum recommending how the RTF should interpret and use the results of the study March 19 E.4. Final presentation (webinar) of study resultsMarch 21

Questions?