Futuring and Leadership Georgia CTAE Resource Network Instructional Resources Office Written by: Dr. Frank Flanders, Alyson Pittman, and Kayla Calhoun July 2009

Objectives Students will: Explain that futuring is an important process of envisioning the future and making decisions accordingly. Analyze several examples of accurate and inaccurate past predictions as they relate to the process of futuring.

Futuring is… an attempt to influence future outcomes by predicting future trends and events and taking action to make the desired outcomes a reality. FUTURING IS MORE THAN PREDICTION! It is using predictions to plan a desirable future.

The more accurate the prediction, the better we can plan. The following slides contain some famous predictions.

Nostradamus Famous 16th Century French philosopher and seer Reported to have predicted the 9/11 attacks, both World Wars, the bombing of Hiroshima, and other world events

Predictions of the Past “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, an official at the U.S. Patent Office, 1899 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher, economics professor at Yale University, 1929 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad.” President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past “Who … wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, co-founder of Warner Brothers, 1927 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” Decca Recording Company, rejecting The Beatles, 1962 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past “Humanity stands ... before a great problem of finding new raw materials and new sources of energy that shall never become exhausted. In the meantime we must not waste what we have, but must leave as much as possible for coming generations.” Svante Arrhenius, Swedish chemist, 1925 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past “A bird is an instrument working according to mathematical law, which instrument it is within the capacity of man to reproduce with all its movements.” Leonardo da Vinci, Treatise on the Flight of Birds, 1505 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the immensity of the first power in comparison with the second." Thomas Malthus, English scholar, 1798 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Past "We have now reached the stage ... where the advance of genetic engineering makes it quite conceivable that we will begin to design our own evolutionary progress -- and will be stopped from doing so not by any strictly technical difficulty but by the overall ethical problems of deciding how we want to change, what we intend to become, where we want to go." Isaac Asimov, Russian-born American author and professor of biochemistry, 1977 What does this quote mean? Has the prediction become a reality?

Predictions of the Present "The human race cannot survive if all humans only live on one planet." - Thomas Frey What does this quote mean?

Predictions of the Present "Talking computers will replace written language by 2050." - Dr. William Crossman, Director of the Institute for the Study of Talking Computers and Oral Cultures What does this quote mean?

Predictions of the Present "Cloned dinosaurs will once again walk the planet." - Watts Wacker, CEO and Futurist, First Matter What does this quote mean?

Predictions of the Present "Amnesia therapy will someday become widely used on individual's brains to erase select pieces of human memory that cause traumatic impairment." - Thomas Frey, Senior Futurist, The DaVinci Institute What does this quote mean?

Martin Luther King, Jr. “Whatever your life's work is, do it well. A man should do his job so well that the living, the dead, and the unborn could do it no better.” www.americaslibrary.gov

Thomas Alva Edison “I never failed once. It just happened to be a 2000-step process.” http://sln.fi.edu/franklin/inventor/images/edislg.jpg

Abraham Lincoln "There are no accidents in my philosophy. Every effect must have its cause. The past is the cause of the present, and the present will be the cause of the future. All these are links in the endless chain stretching from the finite to the infinite." commons.wikimedia.org

Alice in Wonderland “’It’s a poor sort of memory that only works backward,’ said the Queen.” What does this quote mean?

Alice in Wonderland “’Would you tell me please,’ said Alice, ‘which way I ought to walk from here?’ ‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,’ said the cat.” What does this quote mean?

Futuring “When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people, Those who let it happen, Those who make it happen, And those who wonder what happened.” John M. Richardson, Jr.

Are futurists always correct Are futurists always correct? Should our leaders’ predictions always be right?

Why is futuring important?

Why do leaders need futuring skills?

How can we predict the future?

Which type of person is more likely to be an effective leader? Why?

Which type of person is more likely to make their life what they want it to be? Why?

Summary Futuring is the process of analyzing trends, information, and history to prepare for and expect changes in the long term. Futuring is an important aspect of visionary leadership and decision making.