SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò.

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Presentation transcript:

SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

The Reproducibility Crisis?

…or Opportunity? Open Science Collaboration (2015). Science, 349.

Questionable Practices Simmons et al. (2011). Psychol Sci, 22,

Questionable Practices Carp (2012). Neuroimage, 63, “…nearly as many unique analysis pipelines as there were studies in the sample…”

Questionable Practices

Incentive Structures Bones (2012). Perspect Psychol Sci, 7, 307.

Incentive Structures Fanelli & Ioannidis (2013). PNAS, 5, e10271.

Incentive Structures Button et al. (2013). Nat Rev Neurosci, 14,

But Science is Self-Correcting! Ioannidis (2012). Perspect Psychol Sci, 7,

But Science is Self-Correcting! Panagiotou & Ioannidis (2012). J Clin Epidemiol, 65,

But Science is Self-Correcting! Greenberg (2009). Br Med J, 339, b2680. Investigated citation network of papers addressing the belief that B amyloid, a protein accumulated in the brain in Alzheimer’s disease, is produced by and injures skeletal muscle of patients with inclusion body myositis.

But Science is Self-Correcting! Bastiaansen et al. (2015). Biol Psychiatry. Abstracts often “spin” results to give impression that results are positive when they are not. Citation inflation exists for both “positive” studies and “claim” studies in this literature. True both within this literature (A, B) and in the wider (Web of Science) literature (C, D).

But Science is Self-Correcting! Kaplan & Irvin (2015). PLoS One, 10, e In 2000 the National Heart Lung, and Blood Institute required the registration of primary outcome on ClinicalTrials.gov for all their grant-funded activity

Scientific Ecosystems Higginson & Munafò (in preparation). Journals can require higher power (m) and/or more stringent P-value (α). Evaluations can give more weight to confirmatory studies and number of studies. % correct red = high blue = low

Crisis or Opportunity?

Acknowledgements Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group: Angela AttwoodPostdoc Miriam CohenPhD Student Michael DaliliPhD Student Kayleigh EaseyPhD Student Meg FluhartyPhD Student Therese FreulerResearch Assistant Suzi GagePostdoc Harry GoveResearch Assistant Meryem GrabskiPhD Student Sarah GriffithsPhD Student Eleanor KennedyPhD Student Jasmine KhoujaResearch Assistant Lindsey LaceyResearch Assistant Glenda LassiPostdoc Rebecca LawnPhD Student Jim LumsdenPhD Student Olivia MaynardPostdoc Diana PrattAdministrator Andy SkinnerPostdoc Amy TaylorPostdoc Michelle TaylorPhD Student Lea Trela-LarsenPhD Student David TroyPhD Student Jennifer WarePostdoc