W ASHINGTON C ROSSING A DVISORS Market and Economy Outlook
W ASHINGTON C ROSSING A DVISORS 2013 Outlook Executive Summary Improving Fundamentals + Reasonable Valuations = Bullish Economy Grows 2% in 2013, Unemployment Moves Toward 7%, Profits Grow 6-7%, S&P 500 Fair Value = 1,537, Interest Rates Remain Historically Low Record-low Interest Rates and Large Deficits Remain – Government Debt Grows and Inflation Remains Positive Emerging Markets Offer Attractive Combination of Growth and Value Alternative Investments Provide Diversification Benefit Challenges Impose Significant Costs, Resources Are Also Significant
Recent Fundamental Trends
U.S. Stock Market Valuation
Domestic Economy 2013 Forecast
What is Driving the Economy?
Key Trend #1: Employment
Key Trend #2: Real Estate
Key Trend #3: Manufacturing
Key Trend #4: Income Growth
Monetary Policy
How Monetary Policy and the Credit Cycle Effect the Economy
More Credit Produces Inflation – Some Empirical Evidence
Government Fiscal Policy, Deficits and Debt
Interest Rate Outlook
Benefit of a Global View
The Role of “Alternative” Assets In Portfolios
US Wealth Perspective